Cars and Drivers

Weak Ford Earnings Reflect a Big Bet on Aluminum F-150

truck
Ford Motor Co.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) reported third-quarter 2014 results before markets opened Friday morning. The automaker posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24 on revenues of $34.9 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $0.45 on revenues of $33.86 billion. Third-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.19 and $33.11 billion in revenues.

The consensus analysts’ estimate for fourth-quarter EPS is $0.25 on revenues of $35.18 billion. For the full year, the consensus estimates call for $1.09 in EPS and revenues of $137.58 billion.

Operating margin for the full year is expected to be lower than last year’s 5.4%; in the first nine months of the year, operating margin came in at 4.2%. Operating cash flow has been forecast to come in “substantially” lower than 2013’s total of $6.1 billion. Operating cash flow for the first three quarters came in at $3.1 billion, primarily due to capital spending of $1.8 billion in the third quarter, most of which likely went to retooling for the new aluminum body F-150 pickups.

The company also posted a pretax loss in the third quarter of $439 million in the company’s European division, which Ford attributes to the collapse of sales in Russia, currency exchange effects and other factors. Overall, though, volume and market share improved in Europe and revenues were up $500 million year-over-year.

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Pretax income fell from $2.59 billion in the first quarter of last year to $1.18 billion this year. The company attributes the drop to lower volume, higher warranty costs and negative currency exchange effects.

In late September, Ford cut its full-year pretax profit forecast from a prior range of $7 billion to $8 billion to a new total of $6 billion, and the company’s stock plummeted. The company reiterated that estimate Friday morning. No strong upside — or downside — surprise. The bad news was already out and analysts were prepared — the EPS estimate tumbled by more than a third in just the past month.

Mark Fields, Ford’s CEO, said:

During the third quarter, we continued to introduce an unprecedented number of new vehicles and invest heavily in the new products and technologies that will deliver strong profitable growth beginning next year. We also addressed business challenges head-on using our proven One Ford plan. Everyone at Ford remains focused on accelerating our pace of progress, while delivering product excellence and innovation in every part of our business.

Much of Ford’s profit difficulty this year has come from the planned introduction of 23 new models, including the company’s best-selling F-150 pickup scheduled to begin trickling out to dealers late in the fourth quarter. In its guidance for 2015 issued Friday, Ford expects pretax profit next year of $8.5 to $9.5 billion, around a third higher than this year. That would be terrific except that pretax profit last year reached $8.6 billion. Unless Ford can hit the top end of that forecast, investors are likely to look at 2015 as another poor year.

Ford expects to produce about 1.537 million vehicles in the fourth quarter, up sequentially from 1.49 million and essentially flat with the fourth quarter of 2013. The lower year-over-year production is due to planned shutdowns, including a three-week closure at the Dearborn truck plant to complete the changeover for building a new F-150 pickup truck.

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For 2015, Ford expects total industry volume in the United States, including medium and heavy trucks, to be in the range of 16.8 million to 17.5 million vehicles, compared with an outlook for 2014 of 16.8 million. In Europe, Ford is forecasting volume of 14.8 million to 15.3 million units, compared with a projection for this year of 14.5 million. In China, the 2015 forecast calls for 24 million to 26 million units, up from an expected 23.5 million this year.

Ford’s shares were up about 1.5% in premarket trading Friday to $14.42, after closing at $14.40 on Thursday, in a 52-week range of $13.26 to $18.12. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $17.30 before the earnings report.

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