Results from the 2020 census reveal some notable changes in population distribution over the last decade. The U.S. population grew by about 7% from 2010 to 2020, or by about 20 million people. Over the same period, more than 80% of U.S. metro areas reported population growth.

While it remains to be seen whether the broad trend of urbanization will continue into the future, a new report from Washington D.C.-based economic and demographic data firm Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. projects that the population of several U.S. metro areas is likely to swell by over 50% in the coming decades.

Population change is the end result of two factors: migration and natural change. Migration is the net change of people moving to and from an area, while natural change is the number of births less the number of deaths.

Accounting for these factors and anticipating future trends, the population of the Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin metro area in Tennessee is projected to grow from 2,039,400 in 2022 to 3,182,500 in 2060. The 56.1% projected population growth in the metro area is the 31st highest of all 384 U.S. metro areas.

Economic opportunity is one of the most common reasons people move within the United States. Over the same period, employment in Nashville is projected to grow by 97.4% by 2060, while personal income per capita is projected to grow from $71,030 in 2022 to $436,359 in 2060.

All data in this story is from Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., Washington D.C. Copyright 2022.

 

Rank	Metro area	Change in population, 2022 to 2060	Total population, 2022	Projected population, 2060
1	The Villages, FL	+223.2%	139,900	452,100
2	St. George, UT	+118.1%	195,200	425,700
3	Austin, TX	+97.4%	2,398,400	4,733,500
4	Cape Coral, FL	+92.0%	803,000	1,541,400
5	Las Vegas, NV	+90.5%	2,335,600	4,450,000
6	Greeley, CO	+89.0%	346,600	655,000
7	Bend, OR	+83.6%	208,500	382,900
8	Provo, UT	+82.7%	709,600	1,296,600
9	Myrtle Beach, SC	+81.9%	519,200	944,700
10	Port St. Lucie, FL	+80.1%	511,300	920,600
11	Raleigh, NC	+79.8%	1,474,600	2,651,400
12	Naples, FL	+78.5%	392,600	700,700
13	Mcallen, TX	+76.3%	895,000	1,578,200
14	Fayetteville, AR	+76.0%	570,100	1,003,300
15	Orlando, FL	+75.3%	2,737,800	4,800,100
16	Boise City, ID	+68.8%	807,700	1,363,100
17	Phoenix, AZ	+67.3%	5,021,500	8,398,600
18	Dallas, TX	+63.3%	7,874,000	12,859,600
19	Midland, TX	+62.6%	175,700	285,700
20	Houston, TX	+62.2%	7,310,900	11,857,500
21	Daphne, AL	+61.9%	243,000	393,200
22	Kennewick, WA	+60.7%	312,700	502,500
23	Coeur D’Alene, ID	+60.5%	182,400	292,600
24	Charleston, SC	+60.3%	824,400	1,321,300
25	Hilton Head Island, SC	+59.3%	225,300	358,900
26	Charlotte, NC	+58.4%	2,738,800	4,339,400
27	San Antonio, TX	+58.3%	2,637,500	4,176,000
28	Sebastian, FL	+58.0%	165,600	261,700
29	Riverside, CA	+56.8%	4,716,700	7,396,000
30	Ocala, FL	+56.8%	390,500	612,100
31	Nashville, TN	+56.1%	2,039,400	3,182,500
32	Punta Gorda, FL	+55.6%	197,100	306,700
33	Lakeland, FL	+55.5%	764,200	1,188,600
34	Laredo, TX	+54.9%	271,600	420,600
35	Prescott Valley, AZ	+54.5%	245,000	378,500
36	College Station, TX	+54.4%	275,100	424,700
37	Sioux Falls, SD	+53.5%	285,700	438,400
38	Atlanta, GA	+53.4%	6,223,700	9,549,300
39	Jacksonville, FL	+52.9%	1,658,800	2,536,200
40	Reno, NV	+51.6%	504,000	764,100

 

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