These Are the Counties In the Rochester, MN Metro Area Where COVID-19 Is Growing the Slowest

After adding over 3,841,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 56.8 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 820,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a faster rate. In the past week, there were an average of 113.5 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — an increase from the week prior, when there were an average of 57.0 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

In the 50 largest metro areas, the incidence of coronavirus grew at an average rate of 139.8 new cases a day per 100,000 residents in the past week — 31.2% greater than the case growth in all counties outside of metro areas.

The Rochester, MN, metro area consists of Olmsted County, Wabasha County, Fillmore County, and one other county. In the past week, there were an average of 48.2 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Rochester residents, less than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 43.5 daily new cases per 100,000 Rochester residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Rochester metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in Wabasha County. There were an average of 36.1 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Wabasha County during the past week, the least of the four counties in Rochester with available data.

Case growth in the Rochester metro area is relatively uniform at the county level. In Olmsted County, for example, there were an average of 51.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Rochester yet relatively in line with the case growth rate in Wabasha County.

While Wabasha County has the slowest case growth in the Rochester area, it does not have the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of January 6, there were a total of 19,259.9 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Wabasha County, the third fewest of the four counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 17,506.5 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Wabasha County, unemployment peaked at 8.5% in May 2020. As of June 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 3.5%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending January 6. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Minnesota where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).