Q3 25 EPS
$0.67
BEAT +17.71%
Est. $0.57
Q3 25 Revenue
$5.58B
BEAT +0.49%
Est. $5.55B
vs S&P Since Q3 25
+17.7%
BEATING MARKET
CARR +24.4% vs S&P +6.7%
Market Reaction
Did CARR Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Carrier Global posted a headline beat in Q3 2025 that masked a deeply uneven quarter beneath the surface, with adjusted EPS of $0.67 clearing the $0.57 consensus by 17.71% even as revenue slipped 6.8% year-over-year to $5.58 billion, edging past the … Read more Carrier Global posted a headline beat in Q3 2025 that masked a deeply uneven quarter beneath the surface, with adjusted EPS of $0.67 clearing the $0.57 consensus by 17.71% even as revenue slipped 6.8% year-over-year to $5.58 billion, edging past the $5.55 billion estimate by just 0.49%. The story behind the numbers was one of sharp divergence: Commercial HVAC in the Americas surged 30%, fueled by data center demand and a robust backlog, while Residential volumes cratered roughly 30% on weak end-markets and distributor destocking, dragging the CSA segment's margin down 560 basis points. Carrier's capital return approach remained aggressive, with $3 billion returned to shareholders year-to-date and a new $5 billion buyback authorization approved. The mixed picture prompted management to lower full-year 2025 guidance, cutting the sales outlook to roughly $22 billion and trimming adjusted EPS to approximately $2.65, while pointing to cost reduction actions and data center momentum as catalysts for stronger earnings growth in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- • Double-digit aftermarket growth
- • Commercial HVAC grew 30% in the Americas (excluding NORESCO)
- • Residential volumes in the Americas declined approximately 30% due to weak end-markets and distributor destocking
- • Light Commercial in Americas down 4%
- • Container segment grew 50% in Transportation
- • Strong growth in India and Middle East partially offset weakness in China Residential
- • Lower tax rate and reduced share count partially offset lower operating profit on EPS
- • Commercial Refrigeration divestiture created a 4% headwind to reported sales
- • 1% tailwind from foreign currency translation
CARR YoY Financials
Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024, source: SEC Filings
CARR Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“Our team drove continued double-digit aftermarket growth and strong performance in Commercial HVAC, which grew 30% in the Americas, both of which were more than offset by expected weakness in Residential in the Americas.”
— David Gitlin, Q3 2025 Earnings Press Release
CARR Earnings Trends
CARR vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
CARR EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
CARR Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
CARR Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 BEAT | $0.51 | $0.57 | +12.07% | $5.34B | +6.51% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $0.36 | $0.34 | -4.55% | $4.84B | -3.58% |
| FY Full Year | $2.61 | $2.59 | -0.60% | $21.75B | -1.02% |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $0.57 | $0.67 | +17.71% | $5.58B | +0.49% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $0.90 | $0.92 | +1.98% | $6.11B | +0.27% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $0.58 | $0.65 | +11.28% | $5.22B | +0.60% |