Q4 25 EPS
$0.34
MISS 4.55%
Est. $0.36
Q4 25 Revenue
$4.84B
MISS 3.58%
Est. $5.02B
vs S&P Since Q4 25
+12.2%
BEATING MARKET
CARR +20.4% vs S&P +8.2%
Full Year 2025 Results
FY 25 EPS
$2.59
MISS 0.60%
Est. $2.61
FY 25 Revenue
$21.75B
MISS 1.02%
Est. $21.97B
Market Reaction
Did CARR Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Carrier Global closed out 2025 on a disappointing note, missing Wall Street's expectations on both the top and bottom lines as persistent weakness in its residential and light commercial businesses overwhelmed strength elsewhere. The company posted Q… Read more Carrier Global closed out 2025 on a disappointing note, missing Wall Street's expectations on both the top and bottom lines as persistent weakness in its residential and light commercial businesses overwhelmed strength elsewhere. The company posted Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.34, falling short of the $0.36 consensus estimate by 5.56%, while revenue of $4.84 billion trailed expectations by 4.41% and declined 6% year-over-year. The sharpest pain came from Climate Solutions Americas, where residential volumes collapsed 38% and light commercial dropped 20%, sending segment operating margins down nearly 990 basis points to 8.7% and compressing consolidated results broadly. The silver lining was commercial HVAC, where orders surged nearly 50% on the back of data center wins, a trend that has management guiding confidently toward a sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth in 2026. For the full year ahead, Carrier is targeting sales of approximately $22 billion and adjusted EPS of roughly $2.80, while returning capital to shareholders through approximately $1.5 billion in planned buybacks.
Key Takeaways
- • Global commercial HVAC orders up nearly 50% in Q4, driven by data center wins
- • Aftermarket business achieved fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth
- • Climate Solutions Europe margin expansion of 260 bps driven by strong productivity and cost synergies
- • Climate Solutions Transportation container revenue grew nearly 50%
- • Residential and Light Commercial weakness in Americas: Residential down 38%, Light Commercial down 20%
- • Distributor destocking in the Americas weighed on residential volumes
- • Share count reduction from approximately $2.9 billion in full-year share repurchases
CARR YoY Financials
Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024, source: SEC Filings
CARR Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“We continue to drive outsized growth in commercial HVAC with Q4 orders up nearly 50% driven by key data center wins and are well positioned to drive our sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth in this business in 2026. Our aftermarket playbook also continues to yield results, reflected in our fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth. We continue to control the controllables, reducing discretionary costs and building backlog in our long-cycle businesses to mitigate residential market challenges.”
— David Gitlin, Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release
CARR Earnings Trends
CARR vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
CARR EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
CARR Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
CARR Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 BEAT | $0.51 | $0.57 | +12.07% | $5.34B | +6.51% |
| Q4 25 MISS FY | $0.36 | $0.34 | -4.55% | $4.84B | -3.58% |
| FY Full Year | $2.61 | $2.59 | -0.60% | $21.75B | -1.02% |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $0.57 | $0.67 | +17.71% | $5.58B | +0.49% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $0.90 | $0.92 | +1.98% | $6.11B | +0.27% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $0.58 | $0.65 | +11.28% | $5.22B | +0.60% |