Carnival Corp (Paired Stock)
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +1.27%.
Did CCL Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Carnival Corporation capped fiscal 2025 with a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, posting adjusted EPS of $0.34 against a consensus estimate of $0.25, a beat of 38.61%, even as revenue of $6.33 billion came in fractionally below the $6.37 billion forecast despite growing 6.6% year over year. The primary engine behind the earnings outperformance was a combination of robust close-in demand and disciplined cost management, which together pushed adjusted net income to $454 million, exceeding the company's own September guidance by more than $150 million. Net yields in constant currency ran 5.4% above the prior-year quarter and finished 1.1 points ahead of guidance, underscoring the pricing power that analysts tracking the broader cruise sector have increasingly highlighted. Carnival also reinstated its quarterly dividend at $0.15 per share and reduced its net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio to 3.4x, earning an investment-grade rating from Fitch. Looking ahead, management guided full-year 2026 adjusted net income to approximately $3.45 billion, up roughly 12%, with adjusted EBITDA expected near $7.63 billion on less than 1% capacity growth.
- Strong close-in demand driving outperformance vs guidance for the fourth time in 2025
- Record net yields (constant currency) up 5.4% YoY in Q4 and up for full year
- Effective cost management with adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD (constant currency) up only 0.5% in Q4, 2.7 points better than guidance
- Fuel consumption per ALBD decreased 5.6% in Q4 due to efficiency investments
- Gross margin yields 16% higher than Q4 2024
- Record customer deposits of $7.2 billion
“2025 was a truly phenomenal year. We set new records across our business, achieved investment grade leverage metrics and, as announced just today, reinstated our dividend. These milestones reflect the collective strength of our cruise line portfolio and confidence in our long-term future.”
Carnival CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For full year 2026, Carnival expects adjusted net income of approximately $3.45 billion, up approximately 12% compared to 2025 on less than 1% capacity growth. Net yields (constant currency) are expected up approximately 2.5% (or approximately 3.0% after normalizing for Carnival Cruise Line's new loyalty program and Arabian Gulf redeployment). Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD (constant currency) are expected up approximately 3.25% (or approximately 2.5% after normalizing for partial-year operating expenses from Celebration Key, Grand Bahama, RelaxAway and Half Moon Cay). Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is expected at approximately $7.63 billion. For Q1 2026, adjusted net income is expected at approximately $235 million with adjusted EPS of approximately $0.17. Net yields (constant currency) for Q1 2026 are expected up approximately 1.6% (or approximately 2.4% after normalizing for Arabian Gulf redeployment). Adjusted ROIC is expected to exceed 13.5% in 2026. The cumulative advanced booked position for 2026 remains at historically high prices in constant currency, with about two-thirds of 2026 booked. Record booking volumes were achieved for 2026 and 2027 sailings, with Black Friday through Cyber Monday volumes outpacing prior year. Full year 2026 newbuild capital expenditures are $0.6 billion and non-newbuild capital expenditures are $2.5 billion. Full year 2026 ALBDs are expected at 97.4 million, representing approximately 0.9% capacity growth.
CCL YoY Financials
CCL Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.