C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −1.98%.
Did CHRW Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
C.H. Robinson delivered a mixed but ultimately encouraging fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.23 beating the $1.13 consensus estimate by 9.22%, even as total revenue of $3.91 billion fell short of the $3.98 billion Wall Street expected and declined 6.5% year over year. The top-line shortfall reflected a confluence of headwinds, most notably the divestiture of the Europe Surface Transportation business, softer ocean pricing, and reduced truckload rates, yet the company's cost discipline and AI-driven productivity gains, which helped shrink average headcount by nearly 13% in the quarter, allowed margins to expand where it mattered most. The NAST segment stood out, with adjusted operating margin widening 150 basis points to 34.3% even as the broader freight market posted its weakest fourth-quarter reading since 2009. Analysts tracking peer logistics names have noted the sector's ongoing struggle with volume recovery, giving Robinson's roughly 1% NAST volume growth additional significance. Looking ahead, management is targeting approximately $6.00 in adjusted EPS for 2026, underpinned by $964 million in adjusted operating income and assumptions of flat to 5% market volume growth.
- NAST truckload volume grew approximately 3% Y/Y vs. 7.6% decline in Cass Freight Shipment Index, demonstrating market share gains
- NAST adjusted gross profit margin improved 20 basis points Y/Y to 14.6%
- Global Forwarding expanded gross margins by 120 basis points Y/Y through revenue management discipline
- Customs adjusted gross profits increased 30% Y/Y driven by 26% increase in adjusted gross profit per transaction
- Operating expenses decreased 5.0% Y/Y driven by cost optimization and productivity improvements
- Average employee headcount declined 12.9% Y/Y
- LTL adjusted gross profits increased 6.0% Y/Y
- Robinson Fresh adjusted gross profits increased 8.0% Y/Y
“The fourth quarter certainly provided a challenging macro environment, with weak global freight demand, rising spot costs in trucking and falling ocean rates all providing headwinds to our business. However, we've consistently focused on controlling what we can control, which is providing differentiated service and solutions to our customers and carriers, executing with discipline, and continuously improving our business model and our cost to serve.”
C.H. Robinson CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
C.H. Robinson targets approximately $6.00 in adjusted EPS for 2026, equating to $964 million in adjusted operating income, assuming 0% market volume growth. Key market assumptions include flat to 5% market volume growth, NAST adjusted gross profit per shipment flat to up 2%, and Global Forwarding adjusted gross profit per shipment resetting to second-half 2023 levels (down approximately 10%). Long-term operating margin targets are 40% for NAST and 30% for Global Forwarding, with a mid-30s enterprise operating margin target. The company expects incremental adjusted operating income of $350-$450 million versus 2023 at mid-cycle conditions and $400-$500 million at updated 2026 targets. The 2026 effective tax rate is expected to be 18-20%, and capital expenditures are projected at $75-$85 million. The company assumes approximately 120 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding for 2026.
CHRW YoY Financials
CHRW Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.