Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −4.02%.
Did CLF Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Cleveland-Cliffs delivered a mixed fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, posting a smaller-than-feared loss that nonetheless failed to reassure investors on the top line. The steelmaker reported an adjusted loss of $0.43 per diluted share, ahead of the consensus estimate of $0.56 by 23.21%, but revenue of $4.31 billion fell short of the $4.59 billion analysts had expected, a 6.00% miss, even as sales held essentially flat versus the prior-year quarter's $4.33 billion, down just 0.3% year over year. The shortfall reflected a full year of pressure from weak automotive production volumes, a value-destructive expiring slab contract, and headwinds in the Canadian market, three factors that weighed on adjusted EBITDA, which remained negative at $21 million in Q4, though improved from a $81 million loss a year ago. Shares fell sharply following the report, with at least one analyst firm cutting its rating to neutral. Looking ahead, Cliffs guided for 2026 steel shipments of 16.5 to 17.0 million net tons and unit cost reductions of roughly $10 per net ton, with management arguing all three key headwinds have eased entering the new year.
- Persistently weak automotive production levels throughout 2025
- Expiring five-year slab contract becoming value-destructive in its final year
- Adverse dynamics in the Canadian market
- Average net selling price per net ton of $993 in Q4 2025 vs $976 in Q4 2024
- Steel shipments of 3.8 million net tons in Q4 2025 vs 3.8 million in Q4 2024
- Unit cost reductions achieved year-over-year
“Our performance in 2025 was negatively affected by persistently weak production levels from the automotive sector throughout the entire year, an expiring five-year slab contract becoming value-destructive during its last year, and a newly adverse dynamic in the Canadian market. Fortunately, as we started 2026, these negative situations have all improved. At the same time, the trade environment in the United States continues to move in a very constructive direction, setting the stage for dramatically improved results this year.”
Cleveland-Cliffs CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For full-year 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs expects steel shipment volumes of approximately 16.5–17.0 million net tons, steel unit cost reductions of approximately $10 per net ton compared to 2025 (inclusive of richer mix impact from expiration of the slab contract), capital expenditures of approximately $700 million, SG&A expenses of approximately $575 million, DD&A of approximately $1.1 billion, and cash pension and OPEB payments of approximately $125 million. CEO Goncalves indicated that the three main headwinds of 2025 — weak automotive production, the expiring slab contract, and adverse Canadian market dynamics — have all improved entering 2026, and that the U.S. trade environment is increasingly constructive, setting the stage for dramatically improved results.
CLF YoY Financials
CLF Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.