Ero Copper Corp
Q3 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
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Did ERO Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Ero Copper fell short of Wall Street expectations in Q3 2025, posting adjusted EPS of $0.27 against a consensus of $0.32 and revenue of $177.09 million that missed estimates by 31.11%, even as top-line results climbed 41.9% year over year. The primary driver of the shortfall was the timing of Tucumã's commercial production declaration, effective July 1, 2025, which ended borrowing cost capitalization and added $5.40 million in incremental finance expense, while lower planned grades at Caraíba's Vermelhos and Pilar mines pushed blended C1 cash costs higher. On the operational side, the quarter was more constructive, with consolidated copper production reaching a record 16,664 tonnes and gold output at Xavantina rising 17% sequentially to 9,073 ounces. Looking ahead, management reaffirmed full-year copper production guidance at the low end of 67,500 to 80,000 tonnes and expects Q4 to be the strongest production quarter of the year, though Tucumã's C1 cost guidance was raised to $1.35 to $1.55 per pound from $1.10 to $1.30 per pound.
- Continued ramp-up of Tucumã Operation driving 19% sequential increase in copper production
- Record quarterly plant throughput at Caraíba Operations near 1.0 million tonnes following multi-quarter debottlenecking program
- Transition to mechanized mining at Xavantina increasing gold production 17% quarter-on-quarter
- Strengthening copper and gold prices toward end of quarter
- $22.1 million foreign exchange gain from 3% strengthening of BRL against USD
“We are pleased with the continued progress across our operations, where the effort and investment we've made in optimization initiatives are driving sequential copper and gold production growth in the second half of 2025. Highlights include the transition from manual to mechanized mining at Xavantina that provides us with the opportunity to enhance our health and safety efforts at the mine while also increasing our development and exploration opportunities, the continued ramp-up at Tucumã, and encouraging results from Phase 1 and early completion of the Phase 2 drill program at Furnas. While Q3 represented another record consolidated copper production quarter, we are excited for how all of our operations are aligned heading into Q4, which we expect to be our strongest operating quarter of the year.”
Ero Copper CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Consolidated copper production guidance for 2025 is maintained at the low end of the 67,500–80,000 tonne range, with Q4 2025 expected to be the strongest production quarter. At Caraíba, copper production is expected at the low end of 37,500–42,500 tonnes with C1 cash costs in the lower half of $2.15–$2.35/lb. At Tucumã, production is expected at the low end of 30,000–37,500 tonnes, but C1 cash cost guidance was raised to $1.35–$1.55/lb from $1.10–$1.30/lb due to higher maintenance and freight costs. Gold production at Xavantina is expected toward the lower end of 40,000–50,000 ounces with C1 cash cost guidance of $850–$1,000/oz and AISC of $1,800–$2,000/oz maintained. The company expects to sell 10,000–15,000 tonnes of gold concentrate at 30–40 g/t gold grade in Q4 2025. Capital expenditure guidance is unchanged at $230–$270 million, including $10–$15 million for the Furnas Copper-Gold Project and other exploration. A preliminary economic assessment and updated resource estimate for the Furnas project are planned for H1 2026.
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