Ero Copper Corp
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +0.54%.
Did ERO Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Ero Copper posted a mixed fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, falling just short of expectations on both the top and bottom lines as the company's operational transformation continued to reshape its financial profile. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.04 per diluted share, a narrow 1.39% miss against the $1.05 consensus, while revenue of $320.15 million trailed estimates by 25.19%, though the figure still represented a striking 161.3% increase year-over-year as the Tucumã Operation, which declared commercial production on July 1, 2025, ramped toward full capacity. Tucumã contributed 9,275 tonnes of copper in Q4 alone, a 22.4% sequential increase, and was the single largest driver of the revenue surge that propelled full-year adjusted EBITDA to $409.69 million. Looking ahead, Ero guided 2026 consolidated copper production at 67,500 to 77,500 tonnes at C1 cash costs of $2.15 to $2.35 per pound, with analysts maintaining a broadly constructive view on the stock despite near-term cost headwinds tied to lower planned grades and a stronger Brazilian real.
- Tucumã Operation ramp-up contributing incremental copper revenue of $261.4 million in 2025 vs $31.2 million in 2024
- Higher realized copper prices ($5.07/lb in Q4 2025 vs $3.71/lb in Q4 2024) and gold prices ($3,885/oz vs $2,080/oz)
- Record mill throughput at Caraíba of nearly 1.2 million tonnes in Q4 following plant debottlenecking initiative
- Xavantina gold concentrate shipments of 12,754 ounces sold in Q4 from value-creation initiative
- Favorable foreign exchange — BRL strengthened 12.5% against USD in 2025 contributing $95.7 million FX gain vs $165.0 million loss in 2024
- Full-year cash flow from operations increased $249.7 million or 171.7% compared to 2024
“We are pleased with our operating trajectory and performance in the fourth quarter, which delivered record quarterly copper production as well as the first tangible benefits of record quarterly gold from the Xavantina Operations following the commencement of our gold concentrate program in Q4.”
Ero Copper CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For 2026, Ero reaffirmed consolidated copper production guidance of 67,500–77,500 tonnes (up to 20% growth vs. 2025) at C1 cash costs of $2.15–$2.35/lb. Caraíba is expected to produce 35,000–40,000 tonnes at $2.30–$2.50/lb and Tucumã 32,500–37,500 tonnes at $1.95–$2.15/lb. Gold production at Xavantina is guided at 40,000–50,000 ounces at C1 cash costs of $1,000–$1,250/oz and AISC of $2,000–$2,500/oz. Production across all operations is expected to be weighted toward H2 2026 due to mine sequencing, ventilation upgrades, and seasonal factors. Gold production is expected to be lowest in Q1 as the mine advances new development headings and integrates ventilation upgrades. Gold concentrate sales volumes are similarly expected to be lowest in Q1 due to seasonal rainfall. Total 2026 capital expenditures are expected at $275–$320 million, including $170–$185 million at Caraíba, $35–$45 million at Tucumã, $40–$50 million at Xavantina, and $30–$40 million for Furnas exploration and other corporate activities. Unit costs are expected to increase year-over-year due to lower planned grades, higher transport costs, and a stronger BRL exchange rate.
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Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.