Grocery Outlet Holding Corp
Q3 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +1.55%.
Did GO Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Grocery Outlet delivered a mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 report, posting adjusted diluted EPS of $0.21 against a consensus estimate of $0.19, a beat of 11.46%, while revenue of $1.17 billion grew 5.4% year over year but fell just short of the $1.18 billion analysts had expected. The profitability story was more complicated beneath the surface, with gross margin contracting to 30.4% from 31.1% a year earlier as promotional activity and markdowns on seasonal inventory weighed heavily on results, helping cut GAAP net income to $11.61 million from $24.18 million in the prior-year period. Comparable store sales rose a modest 1.2%, with shoppers visiting more frequently but spending less per trip, a pattern that pressured the top line throughout the quarter. Looking ahead, management narrowed its full-year net sales guidance to $4.70 to $4.72 billion and trimmed its comparable store sales growth outlook to 0.6% to 0.9%, while pointing to a broad rollout of its store refresh program in Q4 as a catalyst to accelerate same-store sales momentum into 2026.
- Net sales growth of 5.4% driven by new store openings and 1.2% comparable store sales increase
- Comparable store sales driven by 1.8% increase in transactions, partially offset by 0.6% decrease in average transaction size
- Gross margin decline of 70 basis points year-over-year to 30.4% due to promotional activities and seasonal inventory markdowns
- SG&A increased 8.7% year-over-year driven by new store growth costs
- Adjusted EBITDA declined to $66.7 million from $72.3 million in prior year quarter
“In the third quarter, we made progress on our key initiatives while delivering strong bottom-line results. In addition, we launched our store refresh program at an initial group of pilot stores.”
Grocery Outlet CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Grocery Outlet revised its fiscal 2025 guidance (which includes a 53rd week): net new store openings updated to 37 (from 33-35); net sales narrowed to $4.70-$4.72 billion (from $4.7-$4.8 billion); comparable store sales growth reduced to 0.6%-0.9% (from 1.0%-2.0%); gross margin tightened to 30.3%-30.4% (from 30.0%-30.5%); adjusted EBITDA narrowed to $258-$262 million (from $260-$270 million); diluted adjusted EPS revised to $0.78-$0.80 (from $0.75-$0.80); capital expenditures (net of tenant improvement allowances) maintained at $210 million. Management expects to accelerate same-store sales growth in 2026 through the store refresh program and enhanced IO support.
GO YoY Financials
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.