Grocery Outlet Holding Corp
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −3.82%.
Did GO Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Grocery Outlet delivered a disappointing close to fiscal 2025, with adjusted EPS of $0.19 missing the $0.21 consensus by 10.59% and revenue of $1.22 billion coming in just 0.65% below expectations, even as sales grew 10.7% year-over-year. The headline numbers, however, were overwhelmed by $259.20 million in combined asset and goodwill impairment charges that produced a GAAP net loss of $218.16 million for the quarter. Management pointed to delayed SNAP benefit disbursements and intensifying promotional competition as headwinds that pushed comparable store sales down 0.8%, while $82.40 million of the top-line growth was attributable to a 53rd week. The more consequential story is the Board-approved Optimization Plan to shutter 36 underperforming stores, a rare retreat among discount grocers that signals a decisive pivot from aggressive expansion toward fleet discipline and margin recovery. Looking ahead, the company guided fiscal 2026 net sales of $4.60 to $4.72 billion, with comparable sales ranging from -2.0% to flat and diluted adjusted EPS of $0.45 to $0.55, reflecting a more measured posture as restructuring costs of $14 to $25 million weigh on the year ahead.
- Net sales growth of 10.7% driven by new store openings and 53rd week contribution of $82.4 million
- Comparable store sales declined 0.8% on a 13-week basis driven by 1.7% decrease in average transaction size, partially offset by 0.9% increase in transactions
- Gross margin improved 20 basis points to 29.7% driven by improved inventory management
- Delayed disbursement of SNAP benefits adversely impacted comparable store sales
- SG&A as percentage of net sales increased 70 basis points to 27.7% driven by higher incentive compensation, depreciation, and operator commissions
- Operating cash flow nearly doubled year-over-year to $222.1 million driven by improved inventory management and payment timing
“We made progress on our strategic priorities in 2025; however, our fourth-quarter results made clear that we have more work to do, and we're moving quickly. Consumer pressure intensified, federally funded benefits were delayed, and competition grew more promotional in the fourth quarter. In response, we have begun to sharpen our focus on what matters most: delivering clearer value and a better in-store experience.”
Grocery Outlet CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For fiscal 2026, Grocery Outlet expects 30-33 net new store openings (excluding Optimization Plan closures), net sales of $4.60-$4.72 billion, comparable store sales between -2.0% and 0.0%, gross margin of 29.7%-30.0%, adjusted EBITDA of $220-$235 million, diluted adjusted EPS of $0.45-$0.55, and capital expenditures net of tenant improvement allowances of $170 million. The company will report 52 weeks of operating results in fiscal 2026 compared to 53 weeks in fiscal 2025. In connection with the Optimization Plan, the company expects $14-$25 million in net restructuring charges and $4-$6 million in gross profit headwinds from inventory liquidation at closing stores.
GO YoY Financials
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.