Mattel Inc
Q3 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −1.31%.
Did MAT Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Mattel delivered a disappointing third quarter, missing Wall Street on both the top and bottom lines as shifting retailer ordering patterns weighed heavily on results. The toymaker posted adjusted EPS of $0.89, falling 15.93% short of the $1.06 consensus estimate and down sharply from $1.14 a year ago, while revenue of $1.74 billion trailed expectations by 5.50% and slid 5.8% year over year. The primary culprit was a 12% decline in North American net sales, driven by industry-wide changes in how retailers are timing their orders, a trend that also pressured <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/10/21/netflix-shares-down-5-after-q3-earnings-everything-you-need-to-know/">other consumer-facing companies</a> this earnings season. Gross margin contracted 310 basis points to 50.0%, compounded by tariff costs, unfavorable foreign exchange, and inflation. Barbie gross billings fell 17% to $413.90 million, while Fisher-Price dropped 19% to $215.40 million, though Hot Wheels provided some relief, growing to $547.20 million. Despite the miss, management reiterated full-year guidance for adjusted EPS of $1.54 to $1.66, citing a significant acceleration in U.S. retailer orders since the start of Q4.
- Hot Wheels growth drove Vehicles category up 8% as reported
- Action Figures growth drove Action Figures, Building Sets, Games, and Other category up 11%
- North America Net Sales declined 12% due to industry-wide shifts in retailer ordering patterns
- Barbie gross billings declined 17% worldwide
- Gross margin pressured by unfavorable foreign exchange, inflation, tariff costs, and higher sales adjustments
- Cost savings from Optimizing for Profitable Growth program partially offset headwinds
- International segment grew 3% as reported, with EMEA and Asia Pacific contributing growth
“While our US business was challenged in the third quarter by industry-wide shifts in retailer ordering patterns, the fundamentals of our business are strong, with growth in consumer demand for our products across every region. Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, orders from retailers in the US have accelerated significantly and our POS is growing. Looking into the balance of the year, we expect a good holiday season for Mattel and strong topline growth in the fourth quarter. We are reiterating our full year 2025 guidance and are advancing our strategy to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering.”
Mattel CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Mattel reiterated full-year 2025 guidance: Net Sales growth of +1% to +3% in constant currency, Adjusted Gross Margin of approximately 50%, Adjusted Operating Income of $700-$750 million, Adjusted Tax Rate of 23%-24%, Adjusted EPS of $1.54-$1.66, and Free Cash Flow of approximately $500 million. FY2024 actual Net Sales were $5,380 million. The company expects a good holiday season and strong topline growth in Q4, noting that US retailer orders have accelerated significantly since the start of Q4. Mattel reaffirmed its 2025 share repurchase target of $600 million. Guidance remains subject to market volatility, trade disruptions, and macro-economic risks.
MAT YoY Financials
MAT Revenue by Segment
MAT Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.