Mattel Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −3.31%.
Did MAT Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Mattel delivered a disappointing holiday quarter, missing on both the top and bottom lines as margin pressures overwhelmed solid revenue growth. The toymaker posted Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.39, falling well short of the $0.54 consensus estimate by 27.79%, while revenue of $1.77 billion trailed expectations by 3.90% despite rising 7.3% year-over-year. The primary culprit was a steep 480-basis-point contraction in gross margin to 45.9%, driven by heavier discounts, cost inflation, unfavorable foreign exchange, and a timing gap between tariff costs and the company's mitigating actions. Shares plunged sharply in the aftermath, with some investors viewing the selloff as a potential buying opportunity. Hot Wheels was a bright spot, with Vehicles gross billings surging 20%, but weakness in Dolls and a declining Infant and Preschool segment weighed on results. Looking ahead, Mattel guided 2026 adjusted EPS to $1.18-$1.30, acknowledging that roughly $150 million in strategic investments, including a digital gaming push through its newly acquired Mattel163 studio, will pressure near-term profitability before becoming self-funding in 2027.
- Hot Wheels drove strong Vehicles growth of 20% in Q4
- Action Figures growth primarily tied to theatrical releases
- International net sales grew 11% as reported in Q4
- Market share gains in key categories globally
- Cost savings program tracking ahead of 3-year $200 million target
“We achieved strong topline growth in the fourth quarter and consumer demand was positive in every region for both the quarter and full year, but December gross billings in the U.S. ended up growing less than expected. Our international business was positive for the year and we gained market share in key categories globally.”
Mattel CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For FY2026, Mattel guides Net Sales growth of +3% to +6% in constant currency (including approximately $150 million from Mattel163), Adjusted Gross Margin of approximately 50%, Adjusted Operating Income of $550-$600 million, Adjusted Tax Rate of approximately 24%, and Adjusted EPS of $1.18-$1.30. The company expects approximately $50 million in cost savings in 2026, bringing the total program target to $225 million. Strategic investments of approximately $150 million ($110 million in new capabilities/technology and $40 million in performance-based marketing) will weigh on 2026 Adjusted Operating Income but are expected to be high-ROI and self-funding in 2027 and beyond. Growth is expected to be led by toy innovation, major IP partnerships, two movie releases, and expansion of digital games.
MAT YoY Financials
MAT Revenue by Segment
MAT Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.