Q1 26 EPS
$4.55
BEAT +2.13%
Est. $4.46
Q1 26 Revenue
$850.8M
BEAT +1.12%
Est. $841.4M
vs S&P Since Q1 26
-8.2%
TRAILING MARKET
MSCI -3.9% vs S&P +4.3%
Market Reaction
Did MSCI Beat Earnings? Q1 2026 Results
MSCI Inc. Delivered a broad-based beat in the first quarter of 2026, with adjusted EPS of $4.55 topping the $4.46 consensus estimate by 2.13% and marking the company's fourth consecutive quarter of beating expectations. Revenue of $850.80 million cle… Read more MSCI Inc. Delivered a broad-based beat in the first quarter of 2026, with adjusted EPS of $4.55 topping the $4.46 consensus estimate by 2.13% and marking the company's fourth consecutive quarter of beating expectations. Revenue of $850.80 million cleared the $841.35 million consensus by 1.12% and grew 14.1% year-over-year, powered in large part by a 17.7% surge in Index segment revenue to $496.30 million, where asset-based fees climbed 26.6% to $224.50 million as ETF-linked AUM reached $2.40 trillion despite $41.00 billion in market depreciation during the quarter. Operating margin expanded to 53.7% from 50.6%, while total Run Rate grew 12.7% to $3.36 billion, with net new recurring subscription sales up 51.7%, the strongest first quarter since 2022. With record ETF-linked assets continuing to attract institutional demand, MSCI kept its full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance intact at $1.47 to $1.53 billion, reflecting management's confidence that its diversified revenue model can sustain momentum through an uncertain macro environment.
Key Takeaways
- • Asset-based fees up 26.6% driven by higher AUM in ETFs and non-ETF indexed funds linked to MSCI indexes
- • Recurring subscription revenues up 8.6% year-over-year
- • Record Q1 recurring sales in both Index and Analytics segments
- • Best-ever Q1 recurring net-new sales with hedge funds and banks/broker-dealers
- • Growth in market cap-weighted and custom Index products
- • $103 billion in ETF cash inflows during Q1 2026
- • Discrete tax benefit of $88 million from internal legal entity restructuring reducing effective tax rate to (4.3)%
- • Operating margin expansion to 53.7% from 50.6%
MSCI Forward Guidance & Outlook
MSCI maintained its full-year 2026 guidance largely unchanged: Operating Expense of $1,490 to $1,530 million; Adjusted EBITDA Expense of $1,305 to $1,335 million; Interest Expense of $274 to $280 million; Depreciation & Amortization Expense updated to $190 to $200 million (from $185 to $195 million); Effective Tax Rate of 18.0% to 20.0% (excluding the $88 million discrete tax benefit from legal entity restructuring); Capital Expenditures of $160 to $170 million; Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities of $1,640 to $1,690 million; and Free Cash Flow of $1,470 to $1,530 million.
MSCI YoY Financials
Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025, source: SEC Filings
MSCI Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“In the first quarter MSCI delivered strong financial and operating metrics, including a record asset-based-fee run rate and our best Q1 of recurring net-new subscription sales since 2022. Among product lines and client segments, we posted record levels of Q1 recurring sales in both Index and Analytics, along with our best-ever Q1 recurring net-new sales with hedge funds and with banks and broker-dealers.”
— Henry A. Fernandez, Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release
MSCI Earnings Trends
MSCI vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
MSCI EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
MSCI Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
MSCI Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 BEAT | $4.46 | $4.55 | +2.13% | $850.8M | +1.12% |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $4.59 | $4.66 | +1.56% | $822.5M | -0.13% |
| FY Full Year | $17.20 | $17.28 | +0.47% | $3.13B | -0.06% |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $4.37 | $4.47 | +2.33% | $793.4M | -0.55% |
| Q2 25 BEAT | $4.11 | $4.17 | +1.53% | $772.7M | +1.10% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $3.90 | $4.00 | +2.46% | $745.8M | +0.18% |