Northern Oil and Gas Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −8.32%.
Did NOG Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Northern Oil and Gas closed out Q4 2025 with a mixed set of results, posting adjusted earnings of $0.83 per diluted share and revenue of $610.18 million, up 11.1% year over year, but falling short of Wall Street's consensus EPS estimate of $0.96 by 13.14%. The shortfall was driven primarily by a punishing commodity price environment: WTI averaged just $59.14 per barrel during the quarter, while widening Williston Basin takeaway constraints pressured oil differentials and weak NGL prices weighed on natural gas realizations, pushing oil and gas sales down to $447.72 million from $545.47 million a year ago. A non-cash impairment charge of $268.50 million on the company's full cost pool of oil and gas assets further clouded the headline GAAP figures, resulting in a net loss of $70.73 million for the quarter. On the operational side, production grew 6% year over year to 140,064 Boe per day, with record natural gas volumes up 24%. Looking ahead, NOG's dual-scenario 2026 guidance targets production of 139,000 to 148,000 Boe per day, with capital expenditures ranging from $850 million to $1.10 billion depending on commodity price conditions.
- Production increased 6% year-over-year to 140,064 Boe per day in Q4 2025
- Record natural gas production of 392,163 Mcf per day, up 24% year-over-year
- 24.2 net wells turned in line in Q4, highest quarterly total of 2025
- Weaker oil pricing offset volume gains, with WTI averaging $59.14/Bbl in Q4
- Widened oil differentials in the Williston due to constrained takeaway capacity
- Lower NGL prices and extremely low Waha Hub natural gas pricing pressured gas realizations
- Non-cash ceiling test impairment of $268.5 million driven by lower average oil prices
- Commodity derivative hedging generated $72.9 million in settled cash gains in Q4
“Despite a challenging commodity price environment, NOG delivered growth in Adjusted EBITDA and production while further strengthening our balance sheet. Production increased 9% year over year, supported by increased investment in our natural gas portfolio and continued disciplined capital allocation. We expanded our asset base through approximately $340.0 million of value‑accretive acquisitions, including a record level of Ground Game activity in 2025, and our recently closed marquee Joint Ohio Utica transaction will add substantial scale to our Appalachian position. In tandem with a rigorous business development focus, we also strengthened our balance sheet by extending maturities and enhancing our liquidity.”
Northern Oil & Gas CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
NOG provided 2026 annual guidance with dual scenarios reflecting commodity price uncertainty. Low activity scenario: production of 139,000–143,000 Boe/d (68,000–72,000 Bbls/d oil), total capital expenditures of $850–$900 million, and 67.5–71.5 net wells turned in line. High activity scenario: production of 144,000–148,000 Boe/d (72,000–76,000 Bbls/d oil), total capital expenditures of $1,000–$1,100 million, and 83.0–87.0 net wells turned in line. Operating expenses guided at $9.45–$10.10 per Boe, production taxes at 7%–8% of oil & gas sales, oil differential of ($5.50)–($6.50) per Bbl to NYMEX WTI, natural gas realization at 75%–85% of NYMEX Henry Hub, and DD&A of $15.00–$16.00 per Boe. The company expects commodity price volatility to persist but believes its diversified asset base is positioned to generate value across price scenarios.
NOG YoY Financials
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.