Northern Oil and Gas Inc
Q1 2026 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +6.60%.
Did NOG Beat Earnings? Q1 2026 Results
Northern Oil and Gas delivered a headline beat in Q1 2026, posting adjusted earnings of $0.74 per diluted share against a consensus estimate of $0.68, an 8.82% positive surprise, even as the quarter's underlying story remained complicated by sliding commodity prices and a steep GAAP net loss. Revenue came in at $539.86 million, down 7.0% year-over-year, as weaker natural gas realizations of $2.50 per Mcf, down 35% from a year earlier, undercut the benefit of record natural gas volumes that surged 33% to 448,444 Mcf per day. The most material drag was a $521.42 million unrealized mark-to-market loss on commodity derivatives, which drove the GAAP net loss to $522.85 million and sent shares down roughly 11.5% in the aftermath of the report. Total production of 148,303 Boe per day, up 10% year-over-year, offered a genuine bright spot, and management characterized Q1 as the low point for well additions, projecting an acceleration of completions through the rest of 2026 as the company integrates its newly acquired Ohio Utica assets.
- Total production grew 10% YoY to 148,303 Boe/day driven by record natural gas production up 33%
- Oil price realizations improved 2% YoY to $66.32/Bbl unhedged
- Normalized well costs declined to $749 per lateral foot from $833 in Q1 2025
- Ground Game program completed 41 transactions adding 5,100+ net acres
- Appalachian volumes set another production record
- GAAP results driven by $521.4 million non-cash unrealized mark-to-market loss on derivatives and $268.3 million non-cash ceiling test impairment
“The current geopolitical environment is creating a dynamic environment for our business, and NOG is well-positioned to navigate it. We are seeing improved field level price realizations — particularly in the Williston — while strong hedging keeps us insulated from the seasonal weakness in natural gas prices. It is the longer-dated strip, however, that matters most, and improvements in 2027 and 2028 forward prices give us confidence in the durability of activity, M&A market liquidity, and our ability to compete for high-quality assets. Despite the current volatility, operator activity has remained relatively unchanged since the prior quarter, but we will continue to monitor operator plans and activity in the coming quarters.”
Northern Oil & Gas CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Management expects Q1 2026 to represent the low point for well additions, with an acceleration of TILs (turned-in-line wells) through the balance of 2026. CEO O'Grady expressed confidence in improving 2027 and 2028 forward commodity prices and the durability of activity and M&A market liquidity. President Dirlam noted that with a strong balance sheet and robust free cash flow, NOG sees potential for meaningful growth ahead. The company's leasing program has added over 70 net locations in the past year, building future development runway. Operator activity has remained relatively unchanged since the prior quarter despite geopolitical volatility, but NOG will continue to monitor operator plans.
NOG YoY Financials
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.