Nutrien Ltd
Q2 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +2.86%.
Did NTR Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Nutrien posted a strong second quarter of 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.65 beating the analyst consensus of $2.42 by 9.66%, even as revenue of $10.44 billion came in just fractionally below estimates and grew 2.8% year over year. The outperformance on the bottom line was driven largely by a record quarter in Potash, where sales volumes hit 3,989 thousand tonnes and adjusted EBITDA surged to $630.00 million from $472.00 million a year earlier, helped by a meaningful rise in average net selling prices to $248 per tonne from $212. The Nitrogen segment also contributed, with a record 98% ammonia operating rate lifting adjusted EBITDA to $667.00 million. Despite the earnings beat, shares slipped as investors weighed higher unit production costs and potash price concerns, though management signaled confidence by raising full-year Potash sales volume guidance to 13.9 to 14.5 million tonnes, citing stronger global demand, persistent supply disruptions, and project delays across the industry.
- Record Potash sales volumes supported by strong global demand and potash affordability
- Record ammonia operating rate of 98% in H1 2025 through improved reliability
- Higher fertilizer net selling prices across all upstream segments
- Six percent reduction in Retail selling and general and administrative expenses
- Higher crop nutrient volumes in North America
- Lower foreign exchange losses vs Q2 2024 ($22M vs $285M)
“Nutrien delivered growth in earnings and cash flow in the first half of 2025, demonstrating strong operational performance and execution on our strategic priorities. We sold record Potash sales volumes, increased Nitrogen operating rates and lowered expenses, while further optimizing capital expenditures and consistently returning cash to shareholders.”
Nutrien CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Nutrien raised its 2025 full-year Potash sales volume guidance to 13.9–14.5 million tonnes (from 13.6–14.4 million tonnes) due to expectations for higher global demand. Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.65–$1.85 billion assumes higher North American crop nutrient and crop protection sales in H2 2025, improved Australian moisture conditions, and continued recovery in Brazil. Nitrogen sales volume guidance of 10.7–11.2 million tonnes assumes lower ammonia operating rates in H2 due to planned turnarounds. Phosphate sales volume guidance of 2.35–2.55 million tonnes assumes improved operating rates in H2. Total capital expenditures are expected at $2.0–$2.1 billion, below the prior year. The effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings was raised to 24.0%–26.0% due to a shift in geographic earnings mix. Global potash shipment forecast was raised to 73–75 million tonnes. Depreciation and amortization guidance is $2.35–$2.45 billion. Finance costs guidance is $0.65–$0.75 billion. Management expects supportive fertilizer fundamentals to continue, citing strong demand, persistent supply disruptions, and project delays globally.
NTR YoY Financials
NTR Revenue by Segment
NTR Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.