Nutrien Ltd
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −4.25%.
Did NTR Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Nutrien closed out fiscal 2025 with a standout fourth quarter, posting adjusted EPS of $1.18 against a consensus estimate of $0.92, a beat of 27.66%, while revenue of $5.34 billion topped expectations of $4.90 billion by 9.02% and grew 5.1% year over year. The headline numbers were underpinned by record potash sales volumes and a $6.05 billion full-year adjusted EBITDA, up 13% from the prior year, as exceptional execution across all operating segments combined with cost and capital expenditure reductions that exceeded internal targets. Strategic portfolio actions added further momentum, with the $595 million sale of Nutrien's 50% stake in Profertil generating a $301 million gain and bringing total divestiture proceeds since late 2024 to roughly $900 million, funding balance sheet deleveraging and a 30% increase in cash returns to shareholders. Shares recently touched a new 52-week high as investors digested the results. Looking into 2026, Nutrien guides potash sales volumes of 14.1 to 14.8 million tonnes and capital expenditures of $2.0 to $2.1 billion, with a fourth consecutive year of global potash shipment growth expected.
- Higher fertilizer net selling prices across potash, nitrogen, and phosphate
- Record upstream potash sales volumes, driven by strong offshore demand
- Four-percentage-point improvement in ammonia operating rate from reliability initiatives
- Lower operating expenses from cost savings initiatives in Retail
- Higher proprietary products gross margin in Retail
- Gain on sale of 50% equity interest in Profertil ($301 million)
- Successful execution of Brazil margin improvement plan
“2025 was a defining year for our Company, with exceptional performance across all our operating segments and a reduction in cost and capital expenditures that surpassed our targets. Alongside delivering structural free cash flow growth, we took decisive actions to optimize our portfolio, strengthen our balance sheet and increase cash returns to shareholders.”
Nutrien CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For 2026, Nutrien guides Retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.75–$1.95 billion, Potash sales volumes of 14.1–14.8 million tonnes, Nitrogen sales volumes of 9.2–9.7 million tonnes (excluding Trinidad and New Madrid), Phosphate sales volumes of 2.4–2.6 million tonnes, depreciation and amortization of $2.4–$2.5 billion, finance costs of $0.65–$0.75 billion, effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings of 24–26%, and capital expenditures of $2.0–$2.1 billion. The company expects a fourth consecutive year of global potash shipment growth (74–77 million tonnes), supported by strong affordability and low inventory in key markets. Global nitrogen demand is expected to grow in line with historical rates, with urea markets strengthened by strong seasonal demand. Phosphate markets have strengthened in early 2026 due to Chinese export restrictions. US total crop acres expected consistent with 2025 levels, with corn plantings of 94–96 million acres and soybean plantings of 84–86 million acres. Management intends to solidify the optimal path for its Phosphate business strategic alternatives review in 2026.
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Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.