Novavax Inc
Q1 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +6.73%.
Did NVAX Beat Earnings? Q1 2025 Results
Novavax delivered a stunning first-quarter blowout, reporting earnings per share of $2.93 against a consensus estimate of $0.71, a beat of 313.55%, while revenue surged to $666.65 million, nearly doubling the $343.85 million analysts had expected and representing a 610.3% increase from the year-ago period. The single most material driver was a $603 million revenue recognition event tied to the termination of Advance Purchase Agreements with Canada and New Zealand, transforming what would have been a modest quarter into a historic one and swinging the company from a net loss of $148 million a year ago to net income of $519 million. The narrative extends well beyond one-time items, however; the FDA's recent approval of Nuvaxovid triggered a $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi and positions the protein-based vaccine for commercial delivery ahead of the 2025-2026 season. Novavax raised its full-year 2025 adjusted total revenue outlook to $975 million to $1.03 billion, up sharply from prior guidance of $300 million to $350 million, reflecting the broadened Sanofi partnership and an expanding pipeline.
- $603 million in revenue recognized from termination of Canada and New Zealand Advance Purchase Agreements related to cash received in prior years
- $40 million in Sanofi revenue from upfront payment and milestone amortization and cost reimbursement
- Significant cost reductions in SG&A (down to $48M from $87M) and cost of sales (down to $14M from $59M)
“I am pleased with the progress we have made in the first quarter on our corporate growth strategy. We remain focused on creating shareholder value as we advance our three priorities for the year – optimizing our partnership with Sanofi, advancing new and existing partnership opportunities and continuing the development of our early-stage organic pipeline.”
Novavax CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Novavax raised its full-year 2025 Adjusted Total Revenue framework to $975 million–$1,025 million (up from $300–$350 million previously), primarily due to inclusion of Nuvaxovid product sales including $603 million from APA terminations. The company reiterated combined R&D and SG&A expense guidance of $475–$525 million. Key revenue components include: Nuvaxovid Product Sales of ~$610 million, Adjusted Supply Sales of $20–$35 million, Adjusted Licensing/Royalties/Other Revenue of $345–$380 million (including $225 million in U.S. BLA and marketing authorization milestones from Sanofi), R&D reimbursement of $25–$50 million, and $25–$35 million from other partners. Excluded from guidance are Sanofi Supply Sales, Sanofi Royalties, and Sanofi Influenza-COVID-19 Combination/Matrix-M milestones. BLA approval is believed to be achievable upon alignment with FDA on postmarketing commitment study details. Novavax is eligible for royalties in the high teens to low twenties percent on Sanofi's COVID-19 vaccine sales and up to $350 million in milestones for influenza-COVID combination products and up to $200 million per new Matrix-M vaccine.
NVAX YoY Financials
NVAX Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.