Q1 26 EPS
$N/A
Q1 26 Revenue
N/A
vs S&P Since Q1 26
-22.6%
TRAILING MARKET
ORC -16.5% vs S&P +6.0%
Market Reaction
Did ORC Beat Earnings? Q1 2026 Results
Orchid Island Capital delivered a blowout fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, posting earnings per share of $0.62 that left the $0.23 consensus estimate behind by 165.75%, while revenue of $132.19 million nearly doubled year-over-year, rising 97.6% as th… Read more Orchid Island Capital delivered a blowout fourth quarter for fiscal 2025, posting earnings per share of $0.62 that left the $0.23 consensus estimate behind by 165.75%, while revenue of $132.19 million nearly doubled year-over-year, rising 97.6% as the company's aggressive portfolio expansion paid off. The single most decisive driver was a combination of $70.74 million in net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments alongside $38.48 million in net interest income, fueled by a widening net interest spread from 1.20% in Q3 to 1.43% in Q4 as borrowing costs fell. The quarter also reflected a near-doubling of the Agency RMBS portfolio, which grew from an average of $7.7 billion in Q3 to $9.5 billion in Q4, supported by substantial at-the-market equity issuances that pushed shares outstanding to nearly 182 million. Looking ahead, management acknowledged that Agency RMBS spreads have tightened further following new GSE purchase allowances, but noted the company's reduced expense ratio of approximately 1.7% of equity is positioned to support returns, and Orchid has already declared its February 2026 monthly dividend of $0.12 per share.
Key Takeaways
- • Stable interest rates and low implied volatility during Q4 2025
- • Two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts lowering funding costs
- • Net interest spread widened from 1.20% in Q3 to 1.43% in Q4
- • Repurchase agreement borrowing costs declined from 4.45% to 4.14% sequentially
- • Significant tightening of Agency RMBS spreads
- • Average Agency RMBS portfolio growth from $7.7 billion to $9.5 billion quarter-over-quarter
- • Net realized and unrealized gains of $70.7 million on RMBS and derivative instruments
ORC Forward Guidance & Outlook
CEO Cauley noted that while marginal returns currently available in the Agency RMBS sector are less attractive than in the last few years, other fixed income sectors also offer compressed returns and do not surpass Agency RMBS on a risk-adjusted basis. Current market pricing for up to two additional Fed rate cuts in 2026 may not materialize if economic data does not support the case for additional easing. The Trump administration's plan to allow GSEs to increase Agency RMBS purchases to $200 billion per year has tightened spreads further. The company's reduced expense ratio (from 2.6% to 1.7% of equity) is expected to enhance returns going forward.
ORC YoY Financials
Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025, source: SEC Filings
ORC Revenue by Segment
Business unit performance breakdown
“The market conditions of the fourth quarter of 2025 were very conducive for the Agency RMBS market and Orchid. Orchid generated a 7.8% return for the fourth quarter of 2025 (not annualized). The Agency RMBS sector performed well during the quarter, as interest rates were stable, associated interest rate implied volatility was low as well and the Federal Reserve delivered two interest rate cuts during the quarter.”
— Robert E. Cauley, Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release
ORC Earnings Trends
ORC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
ORC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
ORC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
ORC Quarterly Results
5 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $0.19 | $0.62 | +235.14% | $132.2M | +269.88% |
| FY Full Year | $0.69 | $1.24 | +81.02% | $414.0M | +292.31% |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $0.14 | $0.53 | +278.57% | $26.9M | +6.27% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $0.12 | $-0.29 | -348.50% | $23.2M | -0.43% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $0.17 | $0.18 | +5.88% | $21.3M | +78.57% |