Philip Morris International Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −2.07%.
Did PM Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Philip Morris International closed out 2025 on steady footing, matching Wall Street's earnings target precisely while revenue came in just shy of expectations, painting a picture of a company in durable, if not spectacular, transition. The tobacco giant posted Q4 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.70, exactly in line with the $1.70 consensus estimate, while revenue of $10.36 billion rose 6.8% year-over-year but fell about 0.59% short of the $10.42 billion analysts had anticipated. The miss was modest, and the underlying growth story remained intact, anchored by a smoke-free business that now accounts for 41.5% of total net revenues, with ZYN nicotine pouches in the U.S. shipping 196 million cans in the quarter alone, up over 19%. Analysts maintaining a moderate buy consensus on the stock appear encouraged by forward guidance, with PMI projecting 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $8.38 to $8.53, representing growth of 11.1% to 13.1% over 2025, supported by expected operating cash flow of approximately $13.50 billion.
- Strong smoke-free product volume growth driving revenue mix improvement
- Higher combustible tobacco pricing generating favorable price variance
- IQOS HTU adjusted IMS growth accelerating to 12% in Q4
- ZYN nicotine pouch volume growth of over 19% in Q4 in the U.S.
- VEEV e-vapor shipment volumes more than doubled on a full-year basis
- Adjusted operating income margin expansion of 1.6pp to 40.4% for the full year
“We achieved another remarkable year of results in 2025, with a fifth consecutive year of volume growth, net revenues surpassing $40 billion, including close to $17 billion from our smoke-free business, and very good operating margin expansion.”
Philip Morris International CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For 2026, PMI forecasts reported diluted EPS of $7.87 to $8.02 and adjusted diluted EPS of $8.38 to $8.53, representing 11.1% to 13.1% growth versus 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $7.54. Excluding currency, adjusted diluted EPS growth is projected at 7.5% to 9.5%. Q1 2026 adjusted diluted EPS is expected at $1.80 to $1.85. The company expects organic net revenue growth of 5% to 7%, organic operating income growth of 7% to 9%, operating cash flow around $13.5 billion, and capital expenditures of $1.4 to $1.6 billion. PMI targets a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of close to 2.0x by end of 2026 with no share repurchases planned. For 2026-2028, PMI targets compound annual growth of 6-8% for organic net revenues, 8-10% for organic operating income, and 9-11% for adjusted diluted EPS excluding currency.
PM YoY Financials
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PM Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.