Philip Morris International Inc
Q2 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +1.06%.
Did PM Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Philip Morris International posted a mixed but largely encouraging second quarter, delivering an earnings beat while falling short on the top line as illicit cigarette markets in regions like Indonesia and Europe weighed on volumes. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $1.91, clearing the $1.86 consensus estimate by 2.80%, while revenue of $10.14 billion grew 7.10% year-over-year but missed the $10.33 billion consensus by 1.80%. The standout driver was the company's accelerating smoke-free transformation, with IQOS crossing $3.00 billion in quarterly net revenues for the first time and U.S. ZYN shipments surging over 40% to 190 million cans. That momentum was enough to prompt management to raise its full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $7.43 to $7.56, representing 13% to 15% growth over 2024's $6.57 base, with third-quarter adjusted EPS guided to $2.08 to $2.13. Operating cash flow for the full year is projected at approximately $11.50 billion.
- IQOS exceeded $3 billion in quarterly net revenues with HTU adjusted IMS growth reaccelerating to 11.4%
- ZYN U.S. offtake growth reaccelerated to approximately 36% in June
- Strong combustible tobacco pricing driving revenue and gross profit growth
- Smoke-free business accounted for 41% of net revenues, up 2.9pp YoY
- Marlboro achieved highest quarterly market share since 2008 spin-off
“Our business delivered very strong results in the second quarter, with record net revenues and exceptional growth in operating income and adjusted diluted EPS.”
Philip Morris International CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
PMI raised its full-year 2025 guidance. Reported diluted EPS is forecast at $7.24 to $7.37. Adjusted diluted EPS is projected at $7.43 to $7.56, representing 13% to 15% growth over 2024's $6.57. Excluding a favorable currency impact of $0.10, adjusted diluted EPS growth is projected at 11.5% to 13.5%. Key assumptions include: organic net revenue growth of 6% to 8%; organic operating income growth of 11% to 12.5%; total shipment volume growth of around 1%; smoke-free product volume growth of 12% to 14%; U.S. nicotine pouch shipments of 800 to 840 million cans; operating cash flow of approximately $11.5 billion; capital expenditures of around $1.6 billion; effective tax rate of 22% to 23%; no share repurchases in 2025. Q3 adjusted diluted EPS is guided at $2.08 to $2.13, including an estimated favorable currency impact of $0.05.
PM YoY Financials
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Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.