Shake Shack Inc - Class A
Q1 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +6.74%.
Did SHAK Beat Earnings? Q1 2025 Results
Shake Shack posted a disappointing first quarter for 2025, missing on both the top and bottom lines as weather headwinds and softer consumer spending weighed on traffic. The burger chain reported earnings per share of $0.14, falling 15.10% short of the $0.16 consensus estimate, while revenue of $320.90 million trailed expectations by 2.04%, even as sales grew 10.5% year-over-year. The culprit was a 4.6% traffic decline, with more than 400 basis points of pressure attributed to adverse weather and macro softness concentrated in New York City, Los Angeles, and Mid-Atlantic markets. The brighter story was margin execution, where restaurant-level profit margin expanded 120 basis points to 20.7%, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement, driven largely by a new labor model that trimmed labor costs 110 basis points to 28.0% of Shack sales. Looking ahead, management guided Q2 revenue of $346 million to $353 million and reaffirmed full-year adjusted EBITDA of $205 million to $215 million, assuming no material macro deterioration.
- New labor model driving 110 bps year-over-year improvement in labor costs as a percentage of Shack sales
- Operations scorecard system driving improvements in key operating KPIs
- Food and paper cost improvements of 80 bps year-over-year
- Strong new unit openings driving 10.5% total revenue growth
- Price/mix growth of 4.8% offset traffic declines of 4.6%
- Restaurant-level profit margin expansion of 120 bps year-over-year to 20.7%
- 17th consecutive quarter of same-Shack sales growth
“Over the past year, our team has worked to evolve into a performance-based organization that can leverage the scale that we are building with each new Shack, while continuing to put our team members and guests first. This evolution has resulted in better guest service, operational improvements and productivity, culinary innovation and menu strategy, and the foundation of a brand marketing model. We are investing in these new capabilities so that our business will be a launchpad for growth when the macro headwinds shift. From the operations scorecard system that is driving improvements in our operating KPIs to culinary innovation such as our recent Dubai Chocolate Pistachio Shake, we are embracing new ways of doing things to accelerate our growth.”
Shake Shack CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For Q2 2025, the company guides 14-16 Company-operated openings, 5-7 licensed openings, total revenue of $346M-$353M, licensing revenue of $11.9M-$12.3M, same-Shack sales growth in the low single digits, and restaurant-level profit margin of 23.0%-23.5%. For full-year 2025, guidance includes 45-50 Company-operated openings, 35-40 licensed openings, total revenue of $1.4B-$1.5B, licensing revenue of $49M-$51M, same-Shack sales growth in the low single digits, restaurant-level profit margin of approximately 22.5%, G&A of approximately 11.5% of total revenue, equity-based compensation of $22M, D&A of $107M-$110M, pre-opening costs of $16M-$19M, net income of $45M-$60M, adjusted EBITDA of $205M-$215M, and adjusted pro forma tax rate of 24%-25%. Three-year financial targets (FY2025-FY2027) include low-teens total revenue growth, low-teens system-wide unit growth, at least 50 bps of restaurant-level profit margin expansion per year, and low-to-high teens adjusted EBITDA growth. Guidance assumes no material changes in the macro-economic or geopolitical landscape and no outsized impacts from potential tariffs.
SHAK YoY Financials
SHAK Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.