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Live: Can Constellation Brands Rally After Q2 Earnings Tonight?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Oct 6, 1:48pm ET · Published Oct 6, 1:55pm ET

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Constellation Brands Faces Crucial Q2 Earnings Tonight After a Brutal Year

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) reports fiscal Q2 earnings at 4:05 PM ET today, with Wall Street expecting roughly $3.55 per share. That would be below the $3.63 reported a year ago, while estimates have been trending lower ahead of the print.

Expectations are already low. Constellation shares have been under pressure heading into earnings as investors worry about softer beer demand and margin pressure.

Management has also warned of higher costs, while its current full-year outlook calls for beer sales ranging from a 1% decline to 1% growth and beer operating margins of 37% to 38%.

That makes tonight’s report an important test of whether bad news is finally priced in. Constellation now trades at roughly 11 times trailing earnings and carries a dividend yield around 3.6% and free cash flow yield near 9.5%.

If Modelo and the broader beer portfolio show signs of stabilization while margins hold up, even a modestly positive report could give investors a reason to reconsider the stock’s depressed valuation.

This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.

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The story so far

Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ | STZ Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2027 results at 4:05 PM ET with the earnings call scheduled for tomorrow, October 7, at 8:00 AM ET. Shares are down 16.69% over the past year, so this summer-quarter report will show whether beer growth can hold up.

STZ price target

Beat Streak Meets a Skeptical Market

Last quarter, Constellation beat EPS estimates by posting $3.43, ahead of the $3.21 estimate. Revenue of $2.43B also exceeded forecasts, even though it fell 3.3% YoY after the 2025 wine divestitures. Organic net sales rose 3%, and free cash flow climbed 9% to $484.6M.

The stock still slid 3.24% in the week after the report and now trades at $115.06, about 11 times earnings. Management confirmed comparable EPS guidance of $11.20 to $11.90 for the year. CEO Nicholas Fink reported, “Despite a discerning and value-conscious consumer environment, we grew Enterprise organic net sales and gained share during the first quarter of fiscal 2027.”

Consensus Estimates

Metric Q2 FY2027 Estimate YoY Change FY2027 Estimate FY2028 Estimate
Revenue $2.54B +2.4% $9.09B $9.25B
EPS (Normalized) $3.5501 -2.2% $11.7279 $12.2690

Revenue is forecast to grow while EPS contracts, which lines up with the margin pressure management warned about. The quarterly EPS estimate has drifted down from its $3.70 mark 90 days earlier to $3.55. The full-year consensus still remains inside management’s guidance range.

What I’m Watching Tonight: Margins, Modelo, and Guidance

Here are some of the key items I’m watching tonight in Constellation Brands’ Q2 report:

  1. Beer margins. First-quarter beer gross margin reached 39%, but operating margin fell 10 basis points. Management said operating margins face more pressure in Q2 and Q3 as World Cup, college football, and NFL marketing ramps up. The focus will be whether beer margins stay on track for the 37%-38% full-year guide.
  2. Brand mix. Pacifico depletions rose about 21% and Victoria about 14%. Over the same quarter, Modelo Especial fell 2%, and Corona Extra dropped more than 5%. Fink pointed to a “significant gap to distribution” for Modelo, and new sales leader Jack Edwards is now responsible for closing that gap.
  3. Consumer health. Demand was strong in March, then weakened in April and May as gas prices rose. Texas and Florida stayed difficult markets. Consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 in August from 55.2 in July.
  4. Shipments and guidance. First-quarter shipments ran ahead of depletions, so the two need to move back in line. This quarter is compared against last year’s 7% drop in beer net sales. Analysts will watch whether management restores the FY2028 outlook it withdrew in April.
STZ analyst ratings

Earnings History

Quarter EPS Surprise Earnings-Day Move 7-Day Move 30-Day Move
Q1 FY2027 +6.93% -1.59% -3.24% -4.03%
Q4 FY2026 +11.11% +8.53% +0.72% -12.67%
Q3 FY2026 +15.91% +5.32% +7.29% +11.94%
Q2 FY2026 +9.34% +1.03% +0.78% -8.7%
STZ earnings explorer

On average, shares moved 1.39% seven days after earnings over the past year.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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