Shell (SHEL) Q4 2025 Earnings
How Did SHEL Stock React to Q4 2025 Earnings?
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −0.06%.
Did SHEL Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
No. Shell reported Q4 2025 earnings of $0.57 a share on Feb 5, 2026, missing the $1.29 consensus estimate by 55.9%. Revenue was $64.1B against a $65.8B estimate.
Shell delivered a disappointing fourth quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.57 falling short of the $1.29 consensus estimate by 55.91%, while revenue of $64.09 billion missed expectations by 2.62% and slid 3.3% from a year earlier. The primary culprit was a sharp sequential decline in Adjusted Earnings, which tumbled 40% to $3.26 billion, driven by unfavourable non-cash deferred tax reassessments, lower commodity prices, and a struggling Chemicals segment that posted negative Adjusted Earnings of $589 million in the quarter. Marketing also weighed heavily, with Adjusted Earnings dropping 56% quarter-on-quarter to $578 million amid seasonal volume weakness and compressed margins. Adding to investor scrutiny, net debt climbed to $45.70 billion and gearing rose to 20.7%, though Shell held its shareholder return posture firm, announcing a fresh $3.50 billion buyback programme alongside a dividend increase. Looking ahead, the company guided 2026 capital expenditure at $20 to $22 billion, even as analysts flag a looming production gap that may require significant acquisitions or exploration success to bridge.
- Lower realised liquids and LNG prices pressured earnings year-over-year
- Unfavourable tax movements including annual non-cash deferred tax reassessment in Q4
- Lower Marketing margins due to seasonal volume declines
- Higher volumes partly offset price declines
- $5.1 billion in pre-tax structural cost reductions since 2022, with $2.0 billion delivered in 2025
- Chemicals segment continued to be loss-making with negative Adjusted Earnings of $589 million in Q4
- Adura joint venture incorporation generated significant disposal gains in Upstream
What Was Shell's Outlook in Q4 2025?
For Q1 2026: Integrated Gas production expected at approximately 920-980 thousand boe/d; LNG liquefaction volumes approximately 7.4-8.0 million tonnes; Upstream production approximately 1,700-1,900 thousand boe/d; Marketing sales volumes approximately 2,550-2,750 thousand b/d; Refinery utilisation approximately 90-98%; Chemicals manufacturing plant utilisation approximately 79-87%; Corporate Adjusted Earnings expected to be a net expense of approximately $400-$600 million. Full year 2026 cash capital expenditure expected to be $20-$22 billion. A new $3.5 billion share buyback programme is expected to be completed by Q1 2026 results announcement.
SHEL YoY Financials
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $64.1B | $66.3B | −3.3% |
| Net Income | $4.1B | $928.0M | +345.5% |
SHEL Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.