TotalEnergies SE
Q3 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +0.25%.
Did TTE Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
TotalEnergies fell short of Wall Street expectations in Q3 2025, posting earnings per share of $1.64 against a consensus estimate of $1.80, an 8.89% miss, while revenue of $43.84 billion trailed the $44.35 billion forecast by 1.14% and declined 7.6% year-over-year amid a softer crude price environment. The headline shortfall masked a more nuanced operational picture, as the company's adjusted net income climbed 11% quarter-over-quarter to $3.98 billion, lifted by record hydrocarbon production of 2,508 kboe/d, up 4% annually, and a sharp recovery in European refining margins. A planned turnaround at Ichthys LNG weighed on the Integrated LNG segment, which saw adjusted net operating income fall 18% sequentially to $852 million, acting as a meaningful drag on the quarter. Looking ahead, TotalEnergies expects Q4 production of 2,525 to 2,575 kboe/d and has announced a $7.50 billion cost savings program through 2030, reducing 2026 net capital expenditure guidance to approximately $16 billion, signaling a sharper focus on capital discipline as oil prices trend lower.
- 4% year-on-year hydrocarbon production growth driven by start-ups and ramp-ups (Mero-2/3/4, Anchor, Ballymore, Fenix, Tyra)
- Accretive impact of new barrels driving E&P adjusted net operating income growth exceeding production growth
- Sharp improvement in European refining margins (ERM $63/t vs $35.3/t in Q2 and $15.4/t in Q3 2024)
- Portfolio acquisitions of SapuraOMV in Malaysia and Eagle Ford shale gas assets in Texas
- 9% quarter-over-quarter increase in net power production to 12.6 TWh from flexible generation in Europe
- Improved unit margins in Marketing & Services despite lower volumes
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Oil prices are trending downwards amid abundant non-OPEC supply and OPEC+ unwinding voluntary production cuts. European refining margins remain above $50/t at the start of Q4 2025. Forward European gas prices are sustained around $11/Mbtu for Q4 2025 and winter 2025/26. TotalEnergies anticipates an average LNG selling price of $8.5/Mbtu for Q4 2025. Q4 2025 hydrocarbon production is expected between 2,525 and 2,575 Mboe/d, growing over 4% YoY, benefiting from the Ichthys LNG restart. Refinery utilization rate expected between 80-84% in Q4 due to planned turnarounds at Antwerp and SATORP. Full-year net investments expected within $17-17.5 billion guidance. Q4 disposals estimated at $2 billion including Nigeria and Norway E&P divestitures and renewable farm-downs in North America and Greece. Gearing at year-end 2025 expected to be 15-16%. The company announced a $7.5 billion savings program (Capex + Opex) over 2026-2030, reducing net capex guidance to ~$16 billion in 2026 and $15-17 billion/year during 2027-2030. Oil and gas production growth of 3%+ per year targeted through 2030. Integrated Power segment expected to be free cash flow positive by 2028 and achieve 12% ROACE by 2030. Share buyback guidance for 2026 set at $0.75-1.5 billion per quarter at $60-70/b Brent.
TTE YoY Financials
TTE Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.