United Airlines Holdings Inc
Q2 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +2.43%.
Did UAL Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
United Airlines delivered a <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/07/16/live-will-united-airlines-nyse-ual-soar-after-earnings-tonight/">closely watched second quarter</a> that came in fractionally short of Wall Street expectations, with adjusted diluted EPS of $3.87 missing the $3.88 consensus by just 0.22%, while revenue of $15.24 billion grew 1.7% year-over-year but fell 0.61% below the $15.33 billion estimate. The headline misses, however, obscure a more nuanced story: a May disruption at Newark Airport drove an estimated $218 million hit to adjusted pre-tax income, costing roughly 1.2 points of margin and weighing heavily on the quarter's results. Strip out that impact and adjusted pre-tax margin would have reached 12.2%. The outlook has since brightened considerably, with booking demand accelerating by six points in early July and business travel surging at a double-digit pace, prompting management to update full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.00 to $11.00. Premium cabin revenue rose 5.6% and loyalty revenue climbed 8.7%, underscoring the breadth of United's revenue base as it heads into a second half it expects to benefit from improving supply conditions and easing macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Premium cabin revenue rose 5.6% year-over-year
- Loyalty revenue rose 8.7% year-over-year
- Cargo revenue rose 3.8% year-over-year
- Basic Economy revenue rose 1.7% year-over-year
- Average fuel price per gallon declined 15.3% to $2.34
- Capacity up 5.9% year-over-year with largest quarterly schedule in company history
- Best post-pandemic Q2 on-time departure rate and lowest seat cancellation rate
- Diverse revenue sources across premium, economy, cargo, and loyalty
“Our second-quarter performance was more proof that the United Next strategy is working. I am extremely proud of the team for executing a strong operation and navigating through a volatile macroeconomic period, while still growing earnings and pre-tax margin for the first half of the year.”
United Airlines CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
United updated full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $9.00–$11.00, reflecting improved demand visibility. Q3 2025 adjusted diluted EPS is guided at $2.25–$2.75. The company expects less geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty in the second half of 2025, with a demand inflection beginning in early July showing a 6-point acceleration in booking demand and double-digit acceleration in business demand versus Q2. Published industry schedules show a supply inflection beginning in mid-August similar to 2024. The estimated EWR event impact on adjusted pre-tax margin is approximately 0.9 points in Q3 and approximately 0.0 points in Q4, with EWR booking volumes having recovered to normalized levels in July. Full-year adjusted total capital expenditures are expected to be less than $6.5 billion. Q3 profit sharing accrual is expected between $175 million and $225 million. The company plans to resume Tel Aviv service on July 21.
UAL YoY Financials
UAL Revenue by Segment
UAL Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.