United Airlines (UAL) Q2 2025 Earnings
How Did UAL Stock React to Q2 2025 Earnings?
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +2.43%.
Did UAL Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
No. United Airlines reported Q2 2025 earnings of $3.87 a share on Jul 16, 2025, missing the $3.88 consensus estimate by 0.2%. Revenue was $15.2B against a $15.3B estimate.
United Airlines delivered a <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/07/16/live-will-united-airlines-nyse-ual-soar-after-earnings-tonight/">closely watched second quarter</a> that came in fractionally short of Wall Street expectations, with adjusted diluted EPS of $3.87 missing the $3.88 consensus by just 0.22%, while revenue of $15.24 billion grew 1.7% year-over-year but fell 0.61% below the $15.33 billion estimate. The headline misses, however, obscure a more nuanced story: a May disruption at Newark Airport drove an estimated $218 million hit to adjusted pre-tax income, costing roughly 1.2 points of margin and weighing heavily on the quarter's results. Strip out that impact and adjusted pre-tax margin would have reached 12.2%. The outlook has since brightened considerably, with booking demand accelerating by six points in early July and business travel surging at a double-digit pace, prompting management to update full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.00 to $11.00. Premium cabin revenue rose 5.6% and loyalty revenue climbed 8.7%, underscoring the breadth of United's revenue base as it heads into a second half it expects to benefit from improving supply conditions and easing macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Premium cabin revenue rose 5.6% year-over-year
- Loyalty revenue rose 8.7% year-over-year
- Cargo revenue rose 3.8% year-over-year
- Basic Economy revenue rose 1.7% year-over-year
- Average fuel price per gallon declined 15.3% to $2.34
- Capacity up 5.9% year-over-year with largest quarterly schedule in company history
- Best post-pandemic Q2 on-time departure rate and lowest seat cancellation rate
- Diverse revenue sources across premium, economy, cargo, and loyalty
“Our second-quarter performance was more proof that the United Next strategy is working. I am extremely proud of the team for executing a strong operation and navigating through a volatile macroeconomic period, while still growing earnings and pre-tax margin for the first half of the year.”
United Airlines CEO, on the earnings call
What Was United Airlines's Outlook in Q2 2025?
United updated full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $9.00–$11.00, reflecting improved demand visibility. Q3 2025 adjusted diluted EPS is guided at $2.25–$2.75. The company expects less geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty in the second half of 2025, with a demand inflection beginning in early July showing a 6-point acceleration in booking demand and double-digit acceleration in business demand versus Q2. Published industry schedules show a supply inflection beginning in mid-August similar to 2024. The estimated EWR event impact on adjusted pre-tax margin is approximately 0.9 points in Q3 and approximately 0.0 points in Q4, with EWR booking volumes having recovered to normalized levels in July. Full-year adjusted total capital expenditures are expected to be less than $6.5 billion. Q3 profit sharing accrual is expected between $175 million and $225 million. The company plans to resume Tel Aviv service on July 21.
UAL YoY Financials
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.2B | $15.0B | +1.7% |
| Operating Income | $1.3B | $1.9B | −31.3% |
| Net Income | $973.0M | $1.3B | −26.5% |
UAL Revenue by Segment
UAL Revenue by Geography
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.