Union Pacific Corp
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −1.37%.
Did UNP Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Union Pacific delivered a narrow Q4 2025 EPS beat but fell short on the top line, painting a mixed picture for the railroad heading into a pivotal year. Adjusted diluted EPS of $2.86 edged past the $2.86 consensus estimate by just 0.01%, while revenue of $6.08 billion trailed expectations by 0.59% and slipped 0.6% year-over-year, pressured by a 4% decline in revenue carloads that weighed heavily on the quarter. The volume softness was concentrated in intermodal and premium segments, though a 23% surge in coal and renewables freight revenue to $431 million provided a meaningful offset. The adjusted operating ratio deteriorated 190 basis points to 60.0%, even as the company posted strong operational metrics in car velocity and terminal dwell. Recent locomotive modernization commitments underscore management's confidence in the network's long-term positioning. Looking ahead, Union Pacific guided for mid-single digit EPS growth in 2026, consistent with a high-single to low-double digit three-year CAGR target through 2027, with pricing dollars expected to exceed inflation despite a muted economic backdrop.
- Core pricing gains partially offsetting volume declines in Q4
- Best-ever quarterly freight car velocity of 239 daily miles per car, up 9%
- Best-ever quarterly terminal dwell of 19.8 hours, improved 9%
- Record Q4 train length of 9,729 feet, up 3%
- Record Q4 workforce productivity of 1,151 car miles per employee, up 3%
- Coal & renewables freight revenue up 23% in Q4 driven by 9% carload growth and 12% higher average revenue per car
- Revenue carloads declined 4% in Q4, with intermodal down 12% and premium down 10%
- Full year freight revenue excluding fuel surcharge grew 3%
“We had a record-breaking year and delivered best-ever safety, service, and operating results in 2025. Our 2025 reported net income grew 6%, earnings per share increased 8%, and we improved our operating ratio. While we work through the regulatory process to create America's first transcontinental railroad, our team is focused on driving further safety, service, and operating improvements to support growth.”
Union Pacific CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For 2026, Union Pacific expects mid-single digit EPS growth, consistent with attaining a three-year CAGR target of high-single digit to low-double digit through 2027. The company anticipates meeting customer demand with strong service amid a muted economic forecast, with pricing dollars expected to exceed inflation dollars. Management targets operating ratio improvement, industry-leading operating ratio and return on invested capital, continued strong cash generation, a $3.3 billion capital plan, and consistent annual dividend increases.
UNP YoY Financials
UNP Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.