Q2 26 EPS
$N/A
Q2 26 Revenue
N/A
vs S&P Since Q2 26
-7.2%
TRAILING MARKET
VST -3.7% vs S&P +3.5%
Market Reaction
Did VST Beat Earnings? Q2 2026 Results
Vistra Corp. Delivered a strong first quarter for fiscal 2026, posting revenue of $5.64 billion, a 7.58% beat against the $5.24 billion consensus estimate and a 9.1% increase from the year-ago period, as the power generator swung from a GAAP net loss… Read more Vistra Corp. Delivered a strong first quarter for fiscal 2026, posting revenue of $5.64 billion, a 7.58% beat against the $5.24 billion consensus estimate and a 9.1% increase from the year-ago period, as the power generator swung from a GAAP net loss of $268 million in Q1 2025 to net income of $1.03 billion. The headline profit figure was significantly shaped by $1.29 billion in unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivative positions, prompting management to highlight non-GAAP Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1.49 billion as the cleaner read on underlying performance. The East segment was the standout driver, with Adjusted EBITDA climbing to $801 million from $514 million, fueled by higher capacity prices and contributions from the Lotus acquisition, though a historically mild Texas winter weighed on the Retail segment, which fell sharply to $68 million from $184 million. Vistra reaffirmed its 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.80 billion to $7.60 billion and pointed to a 2027 midpoint opportunity range of $7.40 billion to $7.80 billion, with its pending Cogentrix acquisition and recently signed Meta power purchase agreements not yet reflected in those figures.
Key Takeaways
- • Higher realized energy and capacity prices
- • Contribution from plants acquired in the Lotus acquisition
- • Unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivative positions of $723 million
- • Strong fleet performance during Winter Storm Fern and volatile weather
- • Retail segment adversely impacted by one of the mildest first quarters in Texas history
VST Forward Guidance & Outlook
Vistra reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion. For 2027, the company pointed to an Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion, excluding any potential benefits from the pending Cogentrix acquisition and recently signed Meta power purchase agreements, part of which are expected to begin contributing to Adjusted EBITDA in 2027. As of May 1, 2026, Vistra had hedged approximately 98% of expected generation volumes for 2026, 89% for 2027, and 65% for 2028. Load growth remains strong across the company's primary markets.
VST YoY Financials
Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025, source: SEC Filings
“Vistra had an exciting start to 2026, powered by the talent of our people, the capabilities of our generation portfolio, our commitment to our customers, and our ability to grow strategically. The first week of the year brought announcements of our plans to acquire the 5,500-MW Cogentrix natural gas generation portfolio, which we continue to target closing in the second half of the year, followed by our signing of long-term power purchase agreements with Meta at our PJM nuclear sites. Vistra performed well, with the fleet delivering strong performance during an extended period of volatile weather including Winter Storm Fern, while the retail business experienced one of the mildest first quarters in Texas history. Finally, Fitch's recent upgrade of our corporate credit rating to Investment Grade, following S&P's action last year, reflects the progress we've made in strengthening our balance sheet and providing visibility into the longer-term earnings power of the company.”
— Jim Burke, Q2 2026 Earnings Press Release
VST Earnings Trends
VST vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
VST EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
VST Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
VST Quarterly Results
6 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q1 26 | — | — | — | $5.64B | +7.58% |
| Q4 25 FY | $1.33 | — | — | — | — |
| FY Full Year | — | — | — | $17.74B | — |
| Q3 25 | — | — | — | $4.97B | — |
| Q2 25 | — | — | — | $4.25B | — |
| Q1 25 | $0.68 | — | — | $3.93B | +4.18% |