Q4 25 EPS
$N/A
Est. $1.33
Q4 25 Revenue
N/A
Est. $5.54B
vs S&P Since Q4 25
-23.0%
TRAILING MARKET
VST -13.1% vs S&P +9.8%
Full Year 2025 Results
FY 25 Revenue
$17.74B
Market Reaction
Did VST Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Vistra Corp closed out fiscal 2025 with a record operational performance, even as headline GAAP figures clouded the picture, full-year net income fell to $944.00 million from $2.81 billion in 2024, largely the result of an $808.00 million unrealized … Read more Vistra Corp closed out fiscal 2025 with a record operational performance, even as headline GAAP figures clouded the picture, full-year net income fell to $944.00 million from $2.81 billion in 2024, largely the result of an $808.00 million unrealized pre-tax hedging loss tied to rising forward commodity prices rather than any deterioration in the underlying business. Strip away that timing effect, and the story looks markedly different: Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA reached $5.91 billion, while Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth topped $3.59 billion, both clearing the midpoints of original guidance. The results were underpinned by a series of transformative deals, including a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon Web Services for up to 1,200 MW of carbon-free nuclear power and the closing of a 2,600-MW natural gas acquisition from Lotus Infrastructure Partners. Looking ahead, management's 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $6.80 billion to $7.60 billion signals continued expansion, with analysts at TD Cowen lifting their price target in response. Wall Street had been modeling Q4 EPS of $1.33 and revenue of $5.54 billion heading into the print.
Key Takeaways
- • Inclusion of two additional months of Energy Harbor assets in 2025
- • Two months of owning Lotus assets contributed to full-year results
- • Higher retail margins from favorable supply costs
- • Record Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $5,912 million exceeded guidance midpoint by ~$112 million
- • Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $3,592 million exceeded guidance midpoint by ~$292 million
- • Full-year GAAP Net Income decline driven by $808 million unrealized pre-tax hedging losses
VST YoY Financials
Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024, source: SEC Filings
“I am proud of the 2025 performance of our Vistra team – this was truly a transformational year for our company. With our One Team mindset, we achieved several strategic milestones, including a 20-year power purchase agreement with AWS for up to 1,200 MW of carbon-free power at our Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant; the announcement and successful closing of our acquisition of the 2,600-MW gas portfolio from Lotus in just five months; commissioning of the 200-MW Oak Hill Solar Facility on our retired and reclaimed coal mine site, which includes a PPA also with AWS; significant construction progress at our Pulaski and Newton solar facilities in Illinois; execution of uprates across our Texas gas fleet; commencement of construction on two natural gas units totaling 860 MW at our Permian Basin plant, tripling its existing capacity; and TXU Energy becoming the top-rated large retail energy provider in the Texas Public Utility Commission rankings. In addition to this meaningful growth, the team also delivered a record year financially, further demonstrating the strength and consistency of our integrated business model.”
— Jim Burke, Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release
VST Earnings Trends
VST vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
VST EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
VST Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
VST Quarterly Results
6 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q1 26 | — | — | — | $5.64B | +7.58% |
| Q4 25 FY | $1.33 | — | — | — | — |
| FY Full Year | — | — | — | $17.74B | — |
| Q3 25 | — | — | — | $4.97B | — |
| Q2 25 | — | — | — | $4.25B | — |
| Q1 25 | $0.68 | — | — | $3.93B | +4.18% |