A new IDC study shows that smartphone sales will be flat this year. That means Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will release the iPhone 7 into a stagnate market.
According to IDC:
Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.46 billion units with a year-over-year growth rate of 1.6% in 2016 according to the latest forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. Although growth remains positive, it is down significantly from the 10.4% growth in 2015. Much of the slowdown is attributed to the decline expected in developed regions in 2016, while emerging markets continue with positive growth. Developed markets as a whole (United States, Canada, Japan, and Western Europe) are expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.2%, while emerging markets (Asia/Pacific excluding Japan, Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Latin America) will experience a CAGR of 5.4% over the 2015-2020 forecast period.
Jitesh Ubrani, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers, wrote that the problem may be more than just a slow environment:
Growth in the smartphone market is quickly becoming reliant on replacing existing handsets rather than seeking new users. From a technological standpoint, smartphone innovation seems to be in a lull as consumers are becoming increasingly comfortable with “good enough” smartphones.
Going out to 2020, IDC expects Apple’s market share to drop slightly.
|Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by OS, Market Share, and Annual Growth (shipments in millions)|
|Platform||2016 Shipment Volume*||2016 Market Share*||2016 YoY Growth*||2020 Shipment Volume*||2020 Market Share*||2020 YoY Growth*||5 Year CAGR*|
|Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, September 1, 2016|