Consumer Electronics
Apple Mobile OS Growth Battered
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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) can expect more than iPhone sales to be troubled in the months ahead. A forecast from research firm IDC says iOS market share among smartphones shipped this year will fall. At the same time, overall smartphone sales will grow in 2016, albeit at a modest rate.
IDC expects total smartphone sales to rise only 3.1% this year to 1.48 billion. Smartphones shipped that are powered by Google Android will rise 6.2% to 1.24 billion. iOS-powered smartphone shipments will decline 2% to 227 million. Of course, Android has the advantage that it runs across a multitude of smartphones while Apple’s iOS is essentially restricted to Apple products.
The authors of the study wrote:
According to a forecast update from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are expected to grow 3.1% in 2016, which is a substantial slowdown from the 10.5% growth in 2015 and 27.8% in 2014. Shipments are expected to hit 1.48 billion in 2016 and grow to 1.84 billion in 2020. The new forecast is 2.6 percentage points lower than IDC’s previous forecast for 2016 on the basis of the continued slowdown in mature markets and China.
As for Apple in particular:
Apple is expected to face its first down year for iPhone in 2016 with shipments dropping from 232 million in 2015 to 227 million in 2016. The expected decline of 2% year over year is a significant change from past years’ growth and marks a pivotal moment for the company. IDC believes Apple can bring iPhone back to growth in 2017 and beyond supported by its early trade-in program as well as the lower cost iPhone SE. It continues to make inroads in China with development in tier 1 cities and is actively trying to penetrate higher growth markets like India and Middle East. The larger screen iPhone 6 Plus and 6S Plus will continue to grow its share of all iPhones shipped, increasing from 26% in 2016 to 32% in 2020.
Although the survey did not mention it, there may be good news for Apple when it launches the new version of the iPhone, presumably in September.
| Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by OS, Market Share, and 5-year CAGR, 2015-2020 (shipments in millions) | |||||||
| Platform | 2016 Shipment Volume* | 2016 Market Share* | 2016 Year-over-Year Growth* | 2020 Shipment Volume* | 2020 Market Share* | 2020 Year-over-Year Growth* | 2015-2020 CAGR* |
| Android | 1,240.5 | 83.7% | 6.2% | 1,565.3 | 85.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% |
| iOS | 226.8 | 15.3% | -2.0% | 267.1 | 14.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| Windows Phone | 11.2 | 0.8% | -61.6% | 6.8 | 0.4% | -9.5% | -25.3% |
| Others | 4.0 | 0.3% | -55.7% | 0.5 | 0.0% | -9.7% | -43.1% |
| Total | 1,482.5 | 100.0% | 3.1% | 1,839.7 | 100.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, June 1, 2016 | |||||||
* Forecast data
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