The Iowa voting is over and the upsets are recorded. But, with the primaries about to begin in earnest and with the winners to be chosen before mid-year, it hardly matters to the economy who wins.
The recession has begun to flower in the US. The December jobs report was OK. The Fed may not be able to drop rates as much as it would like because of ongoing concerns about inflation. Oil is likely to stay high. The housing, financial, auto, and retail sectors will almost certainly be weak all year.
All of this means that the downturn in the US economy has begun with the primary season. By the time the two nominees lock horns and a new president reaches office, it will be next January. At that point there is a chance that the fall-off in GDP will have come and, perhaps, have gone. If not, the problems will be so deep and wide that a new administration may need several quarters to try to fix them. If there is any gridlock in Congress that process may take until the end of 2009.
It may matter who gets nominated and it may matter more who gets elected. But, for the economy, the results are barely of any interest at all.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Sponsored: Find a Qualified Financial Advisor
Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. If you’re ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now.
Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.
Editors' Picks
