Today’s report noted, “Respondents cite continuing concerns about the general economic environment, government regulations and European financial conditions, but are cautiously more optimistic about the next few months based on lower raw materials pricing and favorable levels of new orders.” We would note that not every sector is growing.
The ISM Manufacturing data for November came in 52.7 for the month, up from 50.8 in October and higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 51.5. The good news is that the estimate range was 50.5 to 52.5, so the 52.7 reading trumped all economist targets in manufacturing. This was also the 28th consecutive month of overall expansion.
New orders rose 4.3 points to 56.7%, which is the second month out of the red after three reports of slight contraction. The prices index rose 4 points to 45%, but the price of raw materials was lower.
The ISM data showed that 8 of 18 manufacturing segments posted growth and 9 of the 18 actually showed contraction. Suddenly the report is not as robust as it seems. Inventories were up and still under 50% and the employment section of the report fell 1.7 points to 51.8%. Both the new orders and the production were up over 4% each and both were above 56%.
JON C. OGG