Unemployment and Payrolls Full Preview for Friday

The public, market watchers, investors and traders of all walks will be watching Friday’s payrolls and unemployment reports from the U.S. Department Labor. 24/7 Wall St. wanted to provide a preview for what readers should expect. What should also be taken into consideration are this week’s “pre-unemployment and payrolls” reports, which were seen ahead of the report.

Thursday threw a bit of a wrench in the machine. Unfortunately, there was an uptick in weekly jobless claims, back to above the 300,000 mark. We also had the Employment Cost Index showing a gain in the cost of labor — in wages and in benefits.

So, what are the financial markets expecting from the Labor Department? We have the following estimates compiled from Bloomberg for the formal unemployment report:

  • 6.1% unemployment, flat versus the prior month.
  • Nonfarm payrolls expected to be up 233,000, versus 288,000 the prior month.
  • Private sector payrolls expected to rise 233,000, versus 262,000 the prior month.
  • Average hourly workweek expected to be flat at 34.5 hours.
  • Average hourly earnings expected to be up 0.2%.

Now, what else happened this week? We have linked to these in detail, but here are some of the summaries:

The Employment Cost Index rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in the second quarter of 2014, versus estimates of 0.5% growth expected by Bloomberg and Dow Jones. This was up a sharper 2% when compared to a year ago. FULL DETAIL

Very mixed data in payrolls, with ADP dropping handily and strong payrolls from TrimTabs.

Second-quarter gross domestic product was up 4.0%, much higher than the 3.1% expected.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept rates and the $10 billion tapering steady, noting improvements but still talking about slack in employment.

The monthly Labor Department’s Employment Situation report is usually one that can greatly influence the broader markets, and not just stocks and bonds — and not just in the United States. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of inflation and full employment makes the payrolls gains among the three most important scheduled economic readings each and every month.

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