As Industrial Production Ticks Up, Can Capacity Ever Break Above 80%?

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By Jon C. Ogg Published
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Industrial production has remained weak and restrained so far in 2015. Some of this may be the strength of the dollar, but much is the weakness that persists in Europe and Asia. Manufacturing production has been down in three of the past five production reports.

June’s industrial production rose by 0.3%. Dow Jones and Bloomberg each had consensus targets calling for a gain of 0.2%. May industrial production was left unrevised at -0.2% and May capacity utilization was revised to 78.2% from 78.1%.

The small gain was shown to be reflective of utilities and mining, and the key manufacturing benchmark was more or less unchanged — the output of motor vehicles and parts fell 3.7%, but production elsewhere in manufacturing rose 0.3%. The best parts of the report remain in business equipment and in materials.

All in all, total industrial production was up only 1.5% over the trailing 12 months.

The other side of the coin is capacity utilization rates. This has been very muted also and has been unable to get back above 80% since before the Great Recession. With the companies awash in capacity, this keeps pressure up against companies overhiring, and it also acts to mute capital spending for big new plants and equipment in manufacturing and in production.

June’s capacity utilization was up 0.2% at 78.4%. The Dow Jones consensus called for 78.1%, and Bloomberg was calling for 78.2%. Capacity is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run average of 1972 to 2014. If you want a core capacity, the reading looks even more dismal at 77.2% in total manufacturing capacity, with the booster coming from higher capacity in utilities and mining.

ALSO READ: States With the Fastest (and Slowest) Growing Economies

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Photo of Jon C. Ogg
About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. www.247wallst.com.

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