Moody’s expects slack growth in the world’s economy for the next two years, which leaves it vulnerable to “shocks” such as those that could cause another financial crisis or recession. Its observations are part of its “Global Macro Outlook 2015-17: Lacklustre Global Economic Recovery Through 2017 Diminishes Resilience to Shocks” report. The basis for comments in its report is economies of the G20.
The concerns are similar to recent ones from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), which have downgraded their global GDP growth forecasts for this year and 2016. The culprit they have in common is China. Authors of the Moody’s report wrote:
The main risks to the economic outlook would stem from a bigger than expected global fallout from the Chinese slowdown and a larger impact from tighter external and domestic financing conditions in other emerging markets.
The global forecast is nearly identical to the ones by the World Bank and IMF based on gross domestic product numbers:
G20 GDP growth is forecast to rise slowly to 2.8% in 2016 and 3% in 2017 from 2.6% in 2015. Emerging markets’ contribution to G20 GDP growth in 2015-17 will fall to the lowest levels since the early 2000s. The combination of persistently low commodity prices and subdued global growth will maintain disinflationary pressures, weigh on revenues and hamper attempts to deleverage.
After years as the world’s economic laggard, growth of the U.S. economy is expected to be strong, but not strong enough to lift the global GDP deceleration. The report points out:
Slow growth in emerging markets will not derail growth in advanced economies, where the economic outlook is likely to be supported by more accommodative monetary policy in the years ahead. Growth is expected to be broadly stable in the US, Europe and Japan. For 2015-17, Moody’s forecasts average GDP growth at around 2.5% in the US, the UK and Korea and 1.5% for the euro area.
And the GDP growth rate in the United States may be better. Some investment banks and economists expect America’s GDP expansion to accelerate to 3% or better in 2016 and 2017.