PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Reading Beats Expectations

We have yet another strong economic report around U.S. manufacturing. Markit’s Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI appears to indicate the strongest rise in U.S. manufacturing production since March 2015. What may matter here is that this is all post-election data, collected between November 11 and November 22, 2016.

Markit’s report showed that output growth accelerated to its fastest for over a year and a half with a steep upturn in new orders and inventory building continuing in November.

November’s Flash PMI reading in manufacturing rose to 53.9 in November versus 53.4 in October. Bloomberg had its seasonally adjusted consensus estimate at 53.5. This signals a stronger number, but not one so strong that the growth and interest rate hawks need to panic.


There is one issue that may come up again after the election — the strong dollar. Markit showed that new export orders rose only marginally, and they said that manufacturers linked this to competitive pressures and the strong dollar, in particular.

Payroll numbers during November were shown to be in a modest rebound, but the pace of staff hiring remained slightly weaker than its post-crisis trend.

Markit’s summary said:

November data highlighted a sustained acceleration in production growth across the U.S. manufacturing sector, and the latest upturn was the fastest since early-2015. Higher levels of output were supported by a continued rebound in new business volumes, with strong domestic demand helping to offset subdued export sales growth. Manufacturers also reported a moderate rise in staffing numbers and another robust increase in purchasing activity.