How big oil stocks perform in 2011 will be highly dependent on the price of crude oil. That’s not a particularly original thought, but it remains true nonetheless. The price of crude fluctuated from below $65/barrel in May of this year to above $91/barrel in the past week. It’s no coincidence that shares in Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), and ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP) posted new 52-week highs earlier this week. Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS-A) posted a 52-week high in early November, and BP plc (NYSE: BP) has still not recovered from the Gulf Oil spill although shares have jumped more than 60% since BP’s 52-week low in June.
We noted yesterday that the big oil companies are expected to spend more than $100 billion in exploration and production activities in 2011. The big jump reflects the companies’ expectations that prices will stay high, certainly above $80/barrel for 2011.
Here’s a short table showing the tickers, the current price, the mean target price from Thomson Reuters, the implied upside to that target, and the 52-week trading range. We’ll add some color after the chart.
| Stock | Current | Mean Target | Implied Gain | 52-week Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | $73.37 | $74.77 | 0.019 | 55.94 – 73.69 |
| CVX | $91.37 | $94.88 | 0.038 | 66.83 – 92.39 |
| COP | $67.93 | $64.35 | -0.05 | 46.63 – 68.30 |
| RDS-A | $66.45 | $73.00 | 0.099 | 49.16 – 68.55 |
| BP | $43.95 | $46.66 | 0.061 | 26.75 – 62.38 |