Companies Set to win in Libya (ACM, E, EWI, OXY, RDS-A, BP, PBR, AFK)
Well, it looks like the Gadhafi family has all but lost Libya to the rebels. Earlier this year when the actions were intensifying, even before the unified strikes against the leadership there, many companies with Libya exposure (and funds as well) took it on the chin as their efforts were either under “Force Majeure” or worse.
We wanted to give our readers an updated list of those with Libya exposure. These companies should now be the beneficiary of the outcome rather than be the losers due to the conflict and interruptions. At the time of the outbreak of fighting, Libya produced around 1.5 million barrels per day and that was mostly exported to Europe.
AECOM Technology Corporation (NYSE: ACM) originally had what was roughly a $500 million contract over five years building Libyan infrastructure projects. Much of the work had been done, but now that infrastructure has been damaged it would seem that they would be a shoe-in for more infrastructure building unless the old regime ties are just deemed too strong by the new leadership. Shares were around $28 after the first drop from the Libyan exposure, and along with the rest of the global austerity the stock closed Friday at $18.64.
Eni SpA (NYSE: E), the big Italian energy company, withdrew its foreign personnel with 10% of its natural gas supplies in Libya and much more throughout North Africa. It was close to $47.55 at the time of the withdrawal and shares closed at $35.48 on Friday.
As Italy has larger exposure than many nations to Libya, the iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (NYSE: EWI) is down at $12.56 per Friday’s close, about 30% lower than the $18.13 price. This ETF had a whopping 18% exposure to ENI earlier this year before Libya blew up.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) has (or had) operations there and shares were around $106 after the Libya situation first blew up. Occidental closed Friday at $80.91.
Global oil players have exposure in Libya, although they are very diversified. Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) operated under permits in Libya as well and shares were around $70.85 per ADR after the situation erupted; shares closed Friday at $61.72. BP plc (NYSE: BP) had deeper ties in Libya and its shares were around $48 after the blow-up began; shares closed Friday at $38.46.
Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR) originally said that there were no indications at the start of the onslaught that its operations in Libya were affected over its exploratory offshore block in the North African country. The ADR was at $38.89 back then, and shares closed at $27.17 on Friday.
Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (NYSE: AFK) had 20% at the time of its allocations in Egypt but nothing seen about Libya. Shares closed at $28.37 on Friday and the 52-week range is $26.77 to $36.45.
JON C. OGG