The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) today released the latest version of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, and the agency made some changes to its previous forecasts. The EIA now expects WTI spot prices to average $93.17 a barrel for the year, down from $94.12 in 2012, and Brent spot prices are now forecast to average $105.89 a barrel, down from $111.65 last year.

Regular gasoline prices are forecast to average $3.50 a gallon, down from an average of $3.63 a gallon last year. The agency says that over the summer driving season (April to September), gasoline prices will average $3.53 a gallon, a dime lower than last month’s estimate. For 2014, the EIA now estimates an average gasoline price of $3.39 a gallon.

U.S. consumption of motor gasoline is expected to decline slightly compared with last year. The current estimate calls for consumption of 8.68 million barrels a day, compared with consumption of 8.7 million barrels a day last year. Consumption is now forecast to tick up to 8.69 million barrels a day in 2014 as drivers travel more but improvements in fuel economy offset the increase in miles driven.

The differential between WTI and Brent topped $20 a barrel earlier this year, but dropped to below $9 a barrel last month. For the full year, the EIA estimates a spread of $13 a barrel, shrinking to $9 a barrel in 2014.

The spread between WTI and Brent is largely a result of increasing production of domestic WTI crude and the ability to get that crude to East and Gulf Coast markets, primarily by rail. The EIA now estimates U.S. crude production to rise to 7.42 million barrels a day in 2013 and 8.17 million barrels a day in 2014. In 2012 the agency pegged production at 6.5 million barrels a day.

Spot crude prices are down this morning. WTI is currently down about 0.7% at $95.53 a barrel and Brent crude is down 0.4% at $105.02 a barrel.

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