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According to the Fannie Mae study, some 48% of Americans believe home prices will rise in 2013, an all-time survey high. The study also indicated that more than a quarter of Americans believe that now is a good time to sell a home.
Fannie Mae’s chief economist said:
Housing sentiment remains unshaken from the highs of the last few months. At the same time, perhaps driven by the experience of the past several years, consumers remain cautious in their housing outlook. While the survey shows a string of 17 positive one-year-ahead home price expectations through March, the average expected gains have remained below 3 percent. By comparison, main measures of national home prices in early 2013 posted year-over-year gains of at least double or triple that figure.
The gains in home prices are expected to be small: an average of just 2.7% over the next 12 months. The Fannie Mae survey also indicated that 46% of respondents expected mortgage rates to increase, while just 6% expect rates to fall.
The differences between the two studies may be due to methodology, although both sample cell-phone-only households. But the main difference may be attributable to spin.
That is, the MacArthur-sponsored study sought to explore Americans’ attitudes toward housing with an eye to shaping a discussion on U.S. housing policy. Fannie Mae says it uses its study to “help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support in the future.” One is more strategic, the other more tactical.
Whether the housing market is improving or the crisis is still with us appears to depend on whether a respondent is considering buying or selling a house. Buyers are wary, sellers hopeful.
Fannie Mae’s results are available here.
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