Home Prices Rise in Top 20 Markets, Las Vegas and Phoenix Soar

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index rose 5.2% year over year in November to a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) index of 205.85. That’s 0.1 percentage points higher than the month-over-month increase posted in October.

November marks the fourth consecutive month that home prices have grown more slowly. The national index hit a 20-month low of 205.81 in August.

In all U.S. cities included in the 20-city home price index, November house prices ticked down 0.1% year over year, with three of 20 also posting NSA month-over-month decreases. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose 0.3% on the 20-city index.

Las Vegas (12%), Phoenix (8.1%) and Seattle (6.3%) posted the largest year-over-year gains. Tampa and New York (0.4%) posted the largest month-over-month increases. Chicago, Cleveland, San Francisco and Seattle all posted declines of 0.7% month over month.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller NSA home price indexes for December increased by 4.7% year over year for the 20-city composite index and by 4.3% for the 10-city composite index. Economists had estimated an NSA year-over-year gain on the 20-city index of 4.9%.

The Case-Shiller index tracks prices on a three-month rolling average. November represents the three-month average of September, October and November prices.

Average home prices for November remain comparable to their levels in the winter of 2007.

The chair of the S&P index committee, David M. Blitzer, said:

Home prices are still rising, but more slowly than in recent months. The pace of price increases are being dampened by declining sales of existing homes and weaker affordability. Sales peaked in November 2017 and drifted down through 2018. Affordability reflects higher prices and increased mortgage rates through much of last year. Following a shift in Fed policy in December, mortgage rates backed off to about 4.45% from 4.95%.

Housing market conditions are mixed while analysts’ comments express concerns that housing is weakening and could affect the broader economy. Current low inventories of homes for sale – about a four-month supply – are supporting home prices. New home construction trends, like sales of existing homes, peaked in late 2017 and are flat to down since then. Stable 2% inflation, continued employment growth, and rising wages are all favorable. Measures of consumer debt and debt service do not suggest any immediate problems.

Compared to their peak in the summer of 2006, home prices are now 0.5% higher on the 10-city index. On the 20-city index, home prices are now 3.5% higher. Since the low of March 2012, home prices are up 55.3% and 59.4% on the 10-city and 20-city indexes, respectively. On the national index, home prices are now 11.6% above the July 2006 peak and 53.6% higher than their low-point in February 2012.

Metropolitan Area Nov 2018 Level 1-Year Change
Atlanta 148.88 6.20%
Boston 216.59 5.60%
Charlotte 159.3 5.50%
Chicago 143.53 3.10%
Cleveland 122.93 4.60%
Dallas 187.85 4.00%
Denver 215.43 6.20%
Detroit 124.14 5.70%
Las Vegas 189.97 12.00%
Los Angeles 281.99 4.40%
Miami 239.54 5.00%
Minneapolis 172.99 5.80%
New York 202.44 3.50%
Phoenix 187.47 8.10%
Portland 232.6 4.40%
San Diego 253.85 3.30%
San Francisco 265.35 5.60%
Seattle 245.83 6.30%
Tampa 214.05 5.70%
Washington 227.96 2.70%
Composite-10 227.42 4.30%
Composite-20 213.66 4.70%
U.S. National 205.85 5.20%

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