Caterpillar Cuts Estimates Again

For the 2013 fiscal year, Caterpillar lowered its forecast revenues from $60 billion to $68 billion to a new range of $57 billion to $61 billion. The company’s EPS forecast of $7.00 to $9.00 was reeled in as well, to $7.00 “at the middle of the sales and revenues outlook range.”

At the beginning of the year, the consensus analyst forecast for EPS was $8.54 on revenues of $65.18 billion. Caterpillar put those numbers in the rear-view mirror in January and have now crushed the analysts most recent estimates. The current consensus estimate for $7.71 in EPS on revenues of $62.74 billion in revenues will take another hit today.

The company’s CEO said:

In our year-end 2012 financial release, we said the first quarter of 2013 would be challenging, and it certainly was. As expected, inventory changes were a major factor. Caterpillar and our dealers usually add inventory in the first quarter to prepare for higher end-user demand in the spring and summer. In the first quarter of 2012, we added about $2 billion to inventory, but this year, we cut inventory by about a half billion dollars. In the first quarter of 2012, Cat dealers added machine inventory of about $875 million, and this year, they reduced machine inventory by about $700 million. Those are significant year-to-year swings, and coupled with moderating end-user demand, resulted in sales and revenues being down 17 percent.

Caterpillar’s shares are down about 0.2% in premarket trading at $80.66 in a 52-week range of $78.25 to $108.79. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $103.80 before today’s report.