Has AEP Indicated Peak Utility Earnings?

American Electric Power Co. Inc. (NYSE: AEP) reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2014 results before markets opened Wednesday. For the quarter, the utility company posted operating (adjusted) earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48 on revenues of $4.0 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $0.60 on revenues of $3.8 billion. Fourth-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.50 and $4.2 billion in revenues.

For the full year, EPS came in at $3.43 on revenues of $17.0 billion, compared with consensus estimates calling for EPS of $3.46 on revenues of $17.0 billion.

Quarterly and full-year EPS exclude the impact of the termination of a long-term coal contract.

AEP affirmed earlier guidance for fiscal year 2015, saying it expects operating EPS in the range of $3.40 to $3.60. The consensus estimate calls for $3.53 on revenues of $17.24 billion.

The company’s CEO said:

We saw positive overall load growth for the fifth consecutive quarter and experienced commercial sales increases for the year for the first time since 2008. Residential sales growth also increased year-over-year, which is consistent with the economic improvement in the states where we operate. Although the significant growth that we’ve seen from shale gas operations may be impacted by declining oil prices, other parts of our diversified industrial base should benefit from lower fuel prices.

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The company said its Utilities division brought forward some planned incremental spending for planned maintenance and forestry expenses. This lowered operating earnings by $56 million in the fourth quarter and $32 million in the full year.

AEP’s dividend yield is 3.3% and the utility pays a quarterly dividend of $0.53 a share. Power company deregulation in Ohio had a negative impact on revenues, and the company was able to portion of those lost dollars with increased revenues and earnings in its transmission segment. Transmission revenues are also expected to help manage the “revenue challenges” coming in 2016 and 2017 due to “PJM capacity market results.”

The company’s generating capacity totals nearly 38,000 megawatts, and its transmission system includes more than 40,000 miles of electricity transmission lines.

AEP’s share price rose nearly 32% in 2014 and the stock posted its 52-week high last Friday. The Dow Jones Utility average rose 28% in 2014. So far in 2015, AEP’s shares are up 5.8%, compared with a rise of 5.1% in the utility average and a drop of about 1.5% in the S&P 500.

Shares hit a new 52-week high of $64.99 just after the opening bell Wednesday. The 52-week low is $47.23. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $63.40 before the report.

AEP has been a bit of a surprise from before the open. Some may be on market sentiment, but some may simply be on the continued trend that utility stocks are still treated as the new CD by investors and savers. The dividend yield of 3.3% is a far cry from the old dividend yield when shares were lower, but the 0.25% that banks pay for CDs now is likely to keep interest alive. Another boost is delayed Fed rate hike expectations now that the world is facing deflation risks and now that economic strength is looking lower.

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