New S&P Pivot Points For Cautious December (SPY)

Douglas A. McIntyre

There is some growing technical concern that is coming in the S&P 500 Index, which of course most trade via the SPDR (NYSE: SPY) ETF or the Spyders.  This is one of the older and most liquid ETF instruments with well over 100 million shares traded per day.  INO, one of our affiliates, has just given some key pivot points to watch out for in an audio/video presentation as the S&P and equities whip around.  Last Friday’s reaction to Dubai and the re-news effect of the same yesterday morning was reversed, but this is setting up a more and more critical levels to watch.

The S&P is currently back above 1,100 because of some easing of concerns over what spill-over the Dubai mess will have.  But the S&P broke through 1,090 on the S&P on both Friday and Monday before recovering.  Interestingly enough, the SPY ETF hit lows under $109.00 on the same days before recovering.  This morning’s gap up did not go above the pre-Thanksgiving close and today’s action will be key.

They key pivot that the new technician affiliate at INO is calling for is 1,072, where Adam Hewison said would represent an immediate exit for all long trades in the S&P that have been on the books for months.  If that occurs and holds, the prior pivot of 991 comes into play.  On the SPY ETF, that would imply trading handles of about $107.20 with the possibility of $99.10 coming into play.  One of the issues Adam has is that the internals are looking more bearish even as the market rose, and December is traditionally a tricky month with lighter trading volumes.

We might caution on the low bar being down at 1,072, except that Adam was the one we were relying upon when gold was barely above $900.00 per ounce for his call of a super-band taking gold up to $1,200.00 per ounce and beyond.  Again, that full audio/video can be seen here.