Self-reported spending among American consumers fell sharply in June as compared to May, down from $72 per person to $67. The June figure is up from the same month last year, but only by $6. That spending is still well below the level in 2008.
The data, collected by Gallup suggests that spending improves as job market conditions get better. Unemployment and underemployment are high enough that it is hard to find a reason for a sharp improvement in consumer spending. That means the Gallup numbers confirm other data about consumer confidence.Self-reported data may be more accurate than information collected by the US government. Confidence about how government data is used means that citizens must believe that the Commerce Department and Labor Department use it objectively. The public, however, may not give candid answers to a government of which they are already suspicious.
There as always been paranoia about what central governments do with data about the economy. Gallup is probably viewed as a more neutral party. That makes its report all the more a reason for concern.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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