Investing

Lost Trust After Lost Value In Chinese Internets, But... (RENN, NQ, QIHU, BIDU, SNDA, SINA, LDK)

Maybe it was a really bad IPO. Maybe you can blame the constant accounting fiction by public and state-owned companies.  Maybe it is the nation’s effort to kill growth by fighting inflation. Or maybe it is just that the market has been selling off.  Regardless of what you blame, Chinese internet stocks have not just been weak.  They have been getting bombed out.  With the markets now in oversold territory and then some, we wanted to see just how bad things have gotten to ferret out which ones can recover.

Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) is the IPO that may have been the bubble of all bubbles as the company’s accounting issues and accounting officer resignation came right before the IPO.  The investment bankers should have known better than to bring this one out.  Shares are now under $11.00 and keep hitting new lows.  The post-IPO range is $10.40 to $24.00.  “The Facebook of China” was really the “Face&^%$ of China.”

NetQin Mobile Inc. (NYSE: NQ) was supposed to be the mobile security winner in China, but it has been taken to the woodshed since coming public as well.  This ADR is now around $5.00 and its post-IPO range is $4.82 to $11.90.

Qihoo 360 Technology Co. (NYSE: QIHU) was one we already accused the street of getting wrong right from the start.  Qihoo closed under $22 and its post-IPO range is now only $20.10 to $36.21.

Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is actually indicated slightly higher this morning but shares were under $121 on Wednesday against a 52-week range of $65.90 to $156.04.  The drop was “only 10%” in the last four days, but the valuation here remains high for the leader of search in China.

Shanda Interactive Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ: SNDA) is the online content and MMORPG game provider in China and it has been drummed.  This is a real business that generates real revenues with 25% annual growth and 7% sequential growth at its last report.   Down at $36.67, this just hit a new 52-week low this morning and the new 52-week range is $36.25 to $54.20. This was at $50 as recently as May 11 and now trades at what many would call a cheap 20-times earnings, what a twist of fate.

Sina Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) was just above $120 four days ago.  Now the stock is under $100.  Wow. Shares are indicated under $96.00 this morning versus a 52-week range of $34.26 to $147.12.  SINA is a leading online media company and mobile value-added service and its sales were up 18% at its most recent earnings.  The beatings continue.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) gets to deal with poor markets AND a poor solar situation and it will have to pay attention here for its coming unit spin-off.  And to add another mix in, now a blank check company has filed to come public that intends to acquire a natural resources company in Mongolia.

So, there is a reason to focus on these.  The “when” depends upon more factors than can be said quickly.  The markets have been sliding with a drop even in the U.S. each day in June so far.  We are challenging six consecutive weeks of lower share prices in the U.S. as well.  When a bounce will come is up to the markets, but it does not take a genius to say that a massive oversold market bounce is due even if the only reason is that the market is oversold.

Whenever that bounce comes, it will be some of these ADRs named here that perform the best.

JON C. OGG

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