Janney Capital Markets is out with a stark reminder for bulls and bears alike: increased confidence at the end of a year and even at the very start of a year do not translate to a better year ahead.
The big quote which should act as a reminder is as follows: “Confidence reports in December and even January have a tendency to be misleading indicators of consumers’ willingness to spend, so we’ll be looking to February data to confirm this recent wave of optimism.”
On the rate front, the caveat is that strong demand at the final T-bill auction underscores demand for year-end… On corporate bonds, credit trading volumes measured about 25% of average session on Tuesday… On municipal bonds and municipal credit trends, Janney noted that very low trading volumes are putting limits on any real price discovery in the muni-bond sector and that is leaving yields mostly unchanged.
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